wavb is a goofball. I am his, hopefully, more serious side.
I have followed BAK for a long time but haven't contributed anything but some macro musings. Batman and bankbuyer, along with weasel, flipper, infringer, xofruitcake, and surely doggy, norm and wabuffo (and I've no doubt forgotten some majors) are far out of my league (although sometimes just a hair too smart from where I sit).
However, I haven't used a single one of their ideas unless I had previously come to it with my foil (a retail idea partner who does hours per day hard research) - it wouldn't be right unless I contributed.
Nonetheless, I hope to occasionally contribute actual ideas - go ahead and shred RSH. I can guess most objections, I'm looking for the ones I haven't considered.
In my defense, my 16 year avg annual IRR through 2007 is 25% across all accounts and that includes one (relative to my puny accounts) very large shellacking. Considering retails averages -2%, I'm ok for a retail schmo. As stated previously elsewhere, a good professional managing this small amount of money would no doubt easily achieve a considerably better rate - so I'm not too proud, just satisfied.
NOt that anyone cares, but it's good for me to write it out and review this again.
Things typical of my successes:
Airlease liquidation: 2002-2004,
APCC (american power conversion corp): a number of home runs. had a routine - Analysts hated them (they refused guidance. they'd have the call, analysts would get pissed at no guidance and trash them in the following days, I'd buy and sell a short time later whent the sting of the reviews wore off).
Blair Corp: NCA stock
Fab Industries: liquidation. Got adequate return but kind of screwed by family ownership transfer.
Lucent: a rank speculation that paid off - bought for $1.50 avg after a sustained plummet (who the hell bought it at $80???!!!), sold for 4.67 1-1/2 years later.
MCD: This was my big company no-brainer. Bought after 2000 tech crash and even the Motley Fool piled on. Inside the park home run.
Saucony A and B shares: Another NCA - worked out quite well.
Stewart and Stevens: Another NCA (I think), killer returns.
Tuppeware: nothing fancy, good return.
USG: My home run. Big stake and big returns. Originally bought in BK for $4
Hologic: bought for $4 which equalled the cash in the till. no debt. Literally mocked by analysts for paying cash for a building. I sold 2-1/2 yrs later for $15. They later went to $80 - i think (so, is this a success? Buffet says leave some for the next guy. I basically left him a yacht.)
My big strikeout with bases loaded during the finals:
Enesco - I got almost everything right. NCA stock, adjusted balance sheet of at least $5/share liquidation value for which a private-equity firm would surely, at the very least return me my couple bucks basis when they bought me out. They bought me out alright - in BK for zero. They took the entire 5 bucks from me. Chalk it up to naive retail, my bad. Management was literally a circus act, (female CEO came in one day and announced to stunned employees that she had fallen in love with the company fix-it outside consultant and that she was getting divorced and going off with him). But hey, it was an NCA stock, right? I'm protected right? LOLOLOL x 10.
Without this beauty, my 16-yr IRR is 32%. But that's like ignoring your strikeouts to declare yourself a grand slugger.
My typical failures - all small:
Pier One - LOL
Qwest calls - tiny speculation that coming earnings wouldn't suck as bad as the horror show everyone expected. As I recall, they were even worse. LOL x 2.
Van der Moolen - Don't ask. For the life of me I couldn't even say what I was thinking. |
