Don, I think it's somewhat obvious that those earnings come from more multinational companies than at any other time in history. In addition a stock like AAPL which has the highest weighting in the S&P 500 also has had huge earnings.
How long can AAPL continue to pile up earnings growth?
It will not last forever. Not that I am suggesting anyone short AAPL. Far from it. I just would not be buying long now. For the most part all I am saying is that S&P 500 earnings at or near all time highs has always proven to be unsustainable in the past.
Note that if you overlaid those high points in earnings in 1999/2000 and Q/3 top in 2007 you would also find past market tops:
For more on where the S&P 500 is now:
bespokeinvest.com
The S&P 500 has now bounced 3.05% from its April closing low on the 10th. The index now needs to gain 1.48% to take out its bull market closing high of 1,419.04. Below is an update of our trading range screen for the 30 largest stocks in the S&P 500. The dots indicate where the stock is currently trading, while the end of the tail shows where the stock was trading one week ago. A green dot means the stock has moved higher within its trading range over the last week, while a red dot means the stock has moved lower.
For each stock, the neutral (N) zone represents between one standard deviation above and below its 50-day moving average. The light red shading represents between one and two standard deviations above the 50-day, and vice versa for the light green shading. The dark red shading represents between two and three standard deviations above the 50-day, and vice versa for the dark green shading. Moves into the red shading are considered overbought, while moves into the green shading are considered oversold.
Just 5 of the stocks shown have moved lower within their trading ranges over the last week, while 25 have moved higher. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have had the biggest moves higher since last Thursday's close.
At the moment, 8 of the 30 largest S&P 500 stocks are in overbought territory, while 4 are oversold. Four stocks are in extreme overbought territory -- AT&T (T), Pfizer (PFE), Coca-Cola (KO) and Verizon (VZ). The 4 oversold stocks are Wal-Mart (WMT) -- which was overbought last week, Cisco (CSCO), McDonald's (MCD) and ConocoPhillips (COP).
Looking at year to date performance, the biggest stock in the S&P 500 (and in the world) -- Apple (AAPL) -- is up the most out of all the stocks listed with a gain of 50.54%. Bank of America (BAC) ranks a close second with a YTD gain of 49.19%, followed by JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Microsoft (MSFT) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Google (GOOG) has been the biggest loser out of the 30 biggest stocks so far this year with a decline of 4.44%. McDonald's (MCD) -- which was one of the best performing stocks in 2011 -- is down the second most at -4.43%.
RtS |
