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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (47670)	4/29/2012 1:31:42 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78462

re BG - I am glad I sold but I was lucky rather than good. I sold because I feared dilution from a potential deal with Viterra (something that still could happen, if problems arise with the current merger). The earnings miss larger than a barndoor <g> but BG in their CC promised to make it up in the remainder of the year. Volatile earnings are just part of the business, so BG should not be judged based on their last quarter, imo. Furthermore, a significant part of the margin comes from trading, (which is facilitated by the assets they own, like grain terminals, logistics assets, storage assets) and sometimes their hand is good and sometimes it's not. Cargill is pretty much in the same boat and they had a poor quarter as well, so it's no surprise that BG is not doing great either. In any case, BG is a decent but not a great business. I think I'll put my land in the sand at ~ 60$ as a pricepoint to buy back my shares.

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