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Technology Stocks : Smartphones: Symbian, Microsoft, RIM, Apple, and Others
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From: Eric L4/30/2012 10:00:30 AM
1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 1647
 
Recap: The Q4 2011 and CY 2011 Sell-In and Share Game: Consensus of Strategy Analytics and IDC Estimates

I. 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Consensus Total Handset & Smartphone Sell-In Units and Share

Back in January Strategy Analytics (SA) and IDC both reported their Q4 2011 and CY 2011 Unit Sell-In and Market Share Estimates for Total Handsets and for the Smartphone Segment of handsets. While the two research agencies estimates do vary slightly, their estimates are actually quite similar. Their estimates are abstracted below and averaged to calculate consensus sell-in and market share estimates for total handsets and for smartphones by major vendor and by others.

===============================================================================================
    Consensus Estimates of 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Total Vendor Handset Sell-In Units and Share
     Based on Estimates from Strategy Analytics (SA) & IDC and OEMs Reported Unit Sell-In
===============================================================================================
 2010 / 2011  Q4'10    Q4'10   CY 2010  CY 2010 ¦  Q4'11    Q4'11   CY 2011  CY 2011 ¦ YoY CY
Units / Share Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦  Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦ Change
============= ======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ ======
SA     Total  400.1m  100.0%   1360.0m   100.0% ¦  445.0m  100.0%    1551.4m  100.0% ¦ +14.1%
IDC    Total  402.8m  100.0%   1391.5m   100.0% ¦  427.4m  100.0%    1546.0m  100.0% ¦ +11.1%
===============================================================================================
Variance        2.7m             31.5m          ¦   17.6m               5.4m         ¦        
Consensus     401.5m           1375.8m          ¦  436.2m            1548.7m         ¦ +12.6%
YoY Growth    +17.3%            +17.6%          ¦   +8.7%             +12.6%         ¦
===============================================================================================
      Consensus Estimates of 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Vendor Smartphone Sell-In Units and Share
===============================================================================================
 2010 / 2011  Q4'10    Q4'10   CY 2010  CY 2010 ¦  Q4'11    Q4'11   CY 2011  CY 2011 ¦ YoY CY
Units / Share Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦  Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦ Change
============= ======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ ======
SA     Total  100.7m  100.0%    299.5m   100.0% ¦  155.0m  100.0%     488.5m  100.0% ¦ +63.1%
IDC    Total  102.0m  100.0%    304.7m   100.0% ¦  157.8m  100.0%     491.4m  100.0% ¦ +61.3%
===============================================================================================
Variance        1.3m              5.2m          ¦    2.8m               2.9m         ¦        
Consensus     101.4m            302.1m          ¦  156.4m             490.0m         ¦ +62.2%
YoY Growth    +89.5%            +73.6%          ¦  +54.2%             +62.2%         ¦
Smartphone %   25.2%             22.0%          ¦   35.9%              31.6%         ¦ 
===============================================================================================

II. 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Consensus Total Handset & Smartphone Sell-In Units and Share by Vendor

Strategy Analytics (SA) broke down the unit sell-in and associated market share for the top 3 handset market leaders and smartphone leaders as well as all 'others' while IDC broke down the sell-in and share for the top 5 handset market leaders, smartphone leaders, and all others. In the abstracted tables below I've added the reported or estimated unit totals and share for additional market leaders to consensus totals as well as SA's and IDC's totals. 

===============================================================================================
SA & IDC Consensus CY 2010 & 2011 & Q4 2010/2011 Handset Market Leaders Sell-In Units and Share
===============================================================================================
'11 Branded   Q4'10    Q4'10   CY 2010  CY 2010 ¦  Q4'11    Q4'11   CY 2011  CY 2011 ¦ YoY CY
 #  Vendor¹   Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦  Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦ Change
=== ======== =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ ======
 1. Nokia     123.7m   30.7%    453.0m   33.3%  ¦  113.5m   26.6%    417.1m   27.0%  ¦  -7.9%
 2. Samsung    80.7m   20.0%    280.2m   20.6%  ¦   97.6m   22.8%    328.4m   21.2%  ¦ +17.6%
 3. Apple      16.2m    4.0%     47.5m    3.5%  ¦   37.0m    8.7%     93.2m    6.0%  ¦ +96.2%
 4. LGE        30.6m    7.6%    116.7m    8.4%  ¦   17.7m    4.1%     88.1m    5.7%  ¦ -24.5%
 5. ZTE        15.7m    3.9%     50.5m    3.6%  ¦   17.1m    4.0%     66.1m    4.3%  ¦ +30.9%
 6. RIM        14.6m    3.5%     48.8m    3.4%  ¦   13.0m    3.3%     51.1m    3.8%  ¦  +4.7%
 7. HTC         8.7m    2.2%     21.7m    1.6%  ¦   10.2m    2.3%     43.5m    2.8%  ¦+100.0%
 x. Motorola   11.3m    2.8%     37.3m    2.7%  ¦   10.5m    2.5%     42.4m    2.7%  ¦ +13.7%
 x. SonyErics  11.2m    2.8%     43.1m    3.1%  ¦    9.0m    2.1%     34.4m    2.2%  ¦ -22.3%
    Others²    99.2m    2.5%    315.6m   22.7%  ¦  110.9m   25.9%    417.1m   27.0%  ¦ +32.2%
              ------  ------   -------   ------ ¦  ------  ------    -------  ------ ¦ ------
Cons. Total   401.5m  100.0%   1375.8m   100.0% ¦  436.2m  100.0%   1548.7m   100.0% ¦ +12.6%
==============================================================================================
SA & IDC Consensus CY 2010 & 2011 & Q4 '10/'11 Smartphone Market Leaders Sell-In Units & Share
==============================================================================================
'11 Branded   Q4'10    Q4'10   CY 2010  CY 2010 ¦  Q4'11    Q4'11   CY 2011  CY 2011 ¦ YoY CY
 #  Vendor¹   Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦  Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦ Change
=== ======== =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ ======
 1. Samsung    10.2m   10.1%     23.4m    7.7%  ¦   36.3m   23.2%     95.7m   19.5%  ¦+309.0%
 2. Apple      16.2m   16.0%     47.5m   15.7%  ¦   37.0m   23.7%     93.1m   19.0%  ¦ +96.0%
 3. Nokia      28.2m   27.8%    100.1m   33.1%  ¦   19.6m   12.5%     77.3m   15.8%  ¦ -22.8%
 4. RIM        14.6m   14.4%     48.8m   16.2%  ¦   13.0m    8.3%     51.1m   10.4%  ¦  +4.7%
 5. HTC         8.7m    8.6%     21.7m    7.2%  ¦   10.2m    6.5%     43.5m    8.9%  ¦+100.5%
 x. Motorola    4.9m    4.8%     13.7m    4.5%  ¦    5.3m    3.4%     18.7m    3.8%  ¦ +36.5%
    Other      18.6m   18.3%     46.9m   15.5%  ¦   35.0m   22.4%    110.6m   22.6%  ¦+135.8%
              ------  ------   -------   ------ ¦  ------  ------    -------  ------ ¦ ------
Cons. Total   101.4m  100.0%    302.1m   100.0% ¦  156.4m  100.0%     490.0m  100.0% ¦ +62.2%
==============================================================================================
Smartphone %   25.2%             22.0%          ¦   35.9%              31.6%         ¦ +31.6%
==============================================================================================
¹ Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors
² Huawei likely became a top 10 vendor in CY 2011 with sell-in of ~40 million units

III. Strategy Analytics 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Handset & Smartphone Sell-In Units and Share by Vendor

==============================================================================================
      Strategy Analytics Estimates of 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Handset Sell-In Units and Share
==============================================================================================
'11 Branded   Q4'10    Q4'10   CY 2010  CY 2010 ¦  Q4'11    Q4'11   CY 2011  CY 2011 ¦ YoY CY
 #  Vendor    Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦  Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦ Change
=== ======== =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ ======
1.  Nokia     123.7m   30.9%    453.0m   33.3%  ¦  113.5m   25.5%    417.1m   26.9%  ¦ -07.9%
2.  Samsung    80.7m   20.2%    280.2m   20.6%  ¦   95.0m   21.3%    327.4m   21.1%  ¦ +16.8%
3.  Apple      16.2m    4.0%     47.5m    3.5%  ¦   37.0m    8.3%     93.0m    6.0%  ¦ +95.8%
4.  LGE        30.6m    7.6%    116.7m    8.6%  ¦   17.7m    4.0%     88.1m    5.7%  ¦ -24.5%
5.  ZTE        15.7m    3.9%     50.5m    3.7%  ¦   17.1m    3.9%     66.1m    4.3%  ¦ +30.9%
6.  RIM        14.6m    3.5%     48.8m    3.4%  ¦   13.0m    3.3%     51.1m    3.8%  ¦  +4.7%
7.  HTC         8.7m    2.2%     21.7m    1.6%  ¦   10.2m    2.3%     43.5m    2.8%  ¦+100.0%
8.  Motorola   11.3m    2.8%     37.3m    2.7%  ¦   10.5m    2.4%     42.4m    2.7%  ¦ +13.7%
9.  SonyErics  11.2m    2.8%     43.1m    3.2%  ¦    9.0m    2.0%     34.4m    2.2%  ¦ -22.3%
      Others   96.5m    2.4%    284.1m   20.8%  ¦  131.1m   29.5%    424.7m   27.4%  ¦ +49.5%
              ------  ------   -------   ------ ¦  ------  ------    -------  ------ ¦ ------
       Total  400.1m  100.0%   1360.0m   100.0% ¦  445.0m  100.0%    1551.4m  100.0% ¦ +14.1%
==================================================================================== ¦=======
YoY Growth   +16.2%            +16.3%             +11.2%            +14.1%           ¦ +14.1%
==================================================================================== ¦=======

IV. IDC 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Handset & Smartphone Sell-In Units and Share by Vendor

==============================================================================================
             IDC Estimates of 2010 & 2011 Q4 & CY Handset Sell-In Units and Share
==============================================================================================
'11 Branded   Q4'10    Q4'10   CY 2010  CY 2010 ¦  Q4'11    Q4'11   CY 2011  CY 2011 ¦ YoY CY
 #  Vendor    Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦  Units    Share    Units    Share  ¦ Change
=== ======== =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ =======  =======  =======  ======= ¦ ======
1.  Nokia     123.7m   30.7%    453.0m   33.3%  ¦  113.5m   26.6%    417.1m   27.0%  ¦  -7.9%
2.  Samsung    80.7m   20.0%    280.2m   20.6%  ¦   96.3m   22.8%    329.4m   21.3%  ¦ +17.2%
3.  Apple      16.2m    4.0%     47.5m    3.5%  ¦   37.0m    8.7%     93.2m    6.0%  ¦ +96.2%
4.  LGE        30.6m    7.6%    116.7m    8.4%  ¦   17.7m    4.1%     88.1m    5.7%  ¦ -24.5%
5.  ZTE        15.7m    3.9%     50.5m    3.6%  ¦   17.1m    4.0%     66.1m    4.3%  ¦ +30.9%
6.  RIM        14.6m    3.5%     48.8m    3.4%  ¦   13.0m    3.3%     51.1m    3.8%  ¦  +4.7%
7.  HTC         8.7m    2.2%     21.7m    1.6%  ¦   10.2m    2.3%     43.5m    2.8%  ¦+100.0%
8.  Motorola   11.3m    2.8%     37.3m    2.7%  ¦   10.5m    2.5%     42.4m    2.7%  ¦ +13.7%
9.  SonyErics  11.2m    2.8%     43.1m    3.1%  ¦    9.0m    2.1%     34.4m    2.2%  ¦ -22.3%
    Others     99.2m    2.5%    315.6m   22.7%  ¦  110.9m   25.9%    417.1m   27.0%  ¦ +32.2%
              ------  ------   -------   ------ ¦  ------  ------    -------  ------ ¦ ------
       Total  402.8m  100.0%   1391.5m   100.0% ¦  427.4m  100.0%    1546.0m  100.0% ¦ +11.1%
=====================================================================================¦=======
YoY Growth    +18.3%            +18.8%          ¦  +06.1%             +14.1%         ¦ +11.1%
=====================================================================================¦=======

Caveat: The usual applies, It is possible and perhaps even probable that in creating the table templates I chose to employ for this exercise, and in extracting data and compiling the tables above, and those that will appear in future posts on this board, that I have made typos, transposition errors, currency exchange calculation errors, or miscellaneous other calculation errors, If anyone spots one I'd most appreciate being so advised, TIA.

- Eric -
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