Interesting viewpoint, Ian. CPQ had stalled out last Tues/Wed/Thurs, so I took my call profits. However, I didn't buy puts, as I find it too stressful to be continually in the market. So I'm looking for a good re-entry point. It's nice to fantasize about CPQ at $50, INTC at $58, and Dell at $48-53, but that is highly unlikely, given the strength the market has shown since "the selloff". The news from Japan was negative re Yamaichi, but the techs were poised for a fall anyway, as stocks have never yet gone up in a straight line. Yamaichi deal simply pushed them a little faster down the hill, IMO. It's always difficult to try to catch a bottom, but if one waits for targets that the writer gave, you will more than likely miss out on the next upswing, or at least some of it.
I have found the financial press very often to be great contrary indicators. For instance, on Thursday evening on the Microsoft Investor site, a broker was quoted as saying "Everyone is buying. The train is moving, get off the tracks". There wasn't a negative tone to the whole "Market Summary". That's the day I sold my CPQ calls, and CPQ is now down 6 points from Thursday. But mostly I look at the charts and watch the daily price action, and pay attention to international news.
DK |
