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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns:
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To: The Ox who wrote (807)5/1/2012 8:10:12 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 8288
 
>>Simple prediction and not going out on a limb here (to say the least), we rally one more time over the course of the next few weeks. I think we will see what appears, in hindsight, to be a triple top on the S+P (1410-1430) and then have a very hard and choppy decline for the next few months into October.<<

So, did we seen this "last rally" top on Friday or will we get one more push up? I lean toward continued melt up but this sure looks like as good a spot as any to start back downward.

On another matter, I like the China data points coming our way. Slowing but not so much too fast as to derail the train. European issues will likely remain for the next year to 3 but unless we get something out of left field, I believe a lot of their expected weakness is "baked into the cake" at this stage. I really feel for the people of Spain, as I was in their country last year. I wonderful place with amazing history but their economic issues are deeply rooted and massive. It would seem they need to find a way to put people back to work, similar to what the US did in the 30s. They seem trapped between the greater need for stronger capitalism and the desire to keep so many people under socialism's extremely costly 'safety net'.

I have a feeling that one day in the not too distant future that STD and similar companies will be great long term investments but more likely they will be excellent traders, pop and fade, washout and repeat, until the future starts to look brighter.
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