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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (56137)	5/2/2012 6:09:54 PM
From: marc ultra	3 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 95531

<I think ECRI has never before had to compensate for the economic activity that the double barrel fracing has given our economy. Personally I don't think there's any point in thinking up reasons or excuses for them, they were simply dead wrong and made a terrible call that was was very damaging to those who believed in them. The reason people took the call so seriously was because of their history of not only virtually always being correct but because of their very conservative approach in the past where it appeared they would avoid a false positive recession call at all costs. In 2010 they gave themselves great kudos for refusing to call a recession when others were claiming their own WLI and other things pointed to recession. They proved correct in being conservative and refusing to make a recession call which just made it so much worse and sucked in so many more people with their horrendous call this time. This wasn't some subtle call. Lak was out there with absolutely certainty and it was them pounding the table saying "if you think things are bad now you ain't seen nothing yet". It was Lak saying we'd be seeing double digit unemployment and making everything sound all the more urgent and immediate talking about a wild fire contagion spreading downwardly through the indicators. They were dead wrong and he was dead wrong. Almost immediately after their call along with numerous other economic indicators improving including forward ones like the Conference Board Index of Leasing Indicators, their own WLI started ticking up and the growth rate went from about minus 10 at the time of the call to steadily move up to where it's actually reached positive territory. The worst transgression of the whole ugly process is to this day, 8 months later with the economy continuing to grow at a moderate pace, they have refused to back off and admit they were wrong and instead have been doubling down trying to change the goal posts to fit their bad call and even then the points they used to try to show things were worst then they seemed now have in fact mostly improved themselves so these guys have been more dead wrong and because of pride or stupidity have just completely made themselves look horrible in now trying to twist themselves into a pretzel trying to explain why they're not wrong. Emperor Acuthan has no clothes.

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