Netflix (NFLX) and the Streaming Wars Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Netflix (NFLX) and the Streaming Wars

NFLX 104.35

-1.2%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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From: Gottfried	5/3/2012 9:32:14 PM
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Tilson Wins Some (Barnes & Noble) and Loses Some (Netflix) May 3, 2012, 5:25 PM excerpts Money manager Whitney Tilson does some explaining on his abrupt (and highly profitable) about-face on Barnes & Noble and his continued conviction in Netflix. Perhaps the best story of the month is Tilson’s position in Barnes & Noble. In what appears to be unbelievably good timing, Tilson explains his decision to go long Barnes & Noble immediately before Microsoft pledged to invest millions of dollars into the Nook. “Blind luck,” he told our colleagues at Barron’s. “Normally our timing is absolutely miserable.” This time his timing was impeccable. Tilson had been shorting Barnes & Noble and then turned long just before the Microsoft announcement. So he benefited when the stock was on the way down and made out like a bandit when it surged on the deal news. Tilson explains the rationale in his letter:[snip] on NFLX Our view on the company hasn’t changed much since we first bought it last October – we’re comfortable with a 5-6% position size – but the stock price has been extremely volatile, ranging from $62 to $129 in the six months we’ve owned it, so we’ve done much more trading than we normally do, first trimming aggressively and banking a lot of profits as the stock skyrocketed earlier this year, and then adding to our position recently after it fell sharply. Tilson also thinks Netflix’s outlook was extremely conservative and should set a pretty low bar for the company to hurdle in its next earnings report: On the competitive front, there is no shortage of announcements and activity from various companies like Hulu, HBO, Verizon, Comcast and Amazon, but we are not seeing any impact on Netflix’s business – for now. We’re keeping a close eye on this. blogs.wsj.com

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