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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 341.85-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7015)5/4/2012 9:51:59 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff1 Recommendation  Read Replies (5) of 10065
 
Hi All:

My monthly market update is the same as a month ago: "I still think we are in a topping process."

Certain indexes (NYA and Sox to name two) are substandard at best. The 10 month moving average has crossed below the 20 month moving average on the NYA which is has been bearish in the past. This has not happened to the SPX as of yet though we are close.

Anyway, some indexes make marginal new highs while others flounder. They then change roles. Such is the mark of a topping process.

Market sentiment by historical measures is extended. The consensus indicator is good at marking areas of market tops and bottoms.

bloomberg.com

I think the economic indicators have turned down of late consistent with a rolling over of the economy. 20% of US exports and profits come from Europe, so their problems do not help us.I suspect that you will hear the calls for QE3 as operation twist expires on 6/24.

At best, I think there will be a series of events that will (temporarily) overwhelm the efforts of the Fed. and others to forestall a downturn in the economies. The world banks are merely spinning more and more plates at this point and it will not last without incident.

And then the fed. and others will have to create a new bag of tricks.

Lather, rinse and repeat.

Justa

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