First of all, why do I need to have a balanced perspective? Life is all about personal opinions, personal preferences, etc. Short of slander or libel, anyone can say just about whatever they want here.
If I were a professional analyst, perhaps I would need a balanced perspective, but the fact is, even most professional analysts carry preferences, biases, etc.
Actually, TD, I was looking for good stuff to say about the big O. I was very interested in buying a block of ORCL, when I saw that the price was slipping, but my basic research caused me concern, especially with relatively flat revenues, and decreasing earnings. What is your opinion about the ORCL situation - why the stock is not moving over time?
In fact, I have made money from time to time with ORCL, so I certainly have no special bias against it - just sharing what FACTS I have discovered for myself. To wit:
a) I was surprised to learn that software licenses now only account for 38% of the revenue, and that's over the past year. That seems extraordinarily low. I would have guessed 60 - 70%. I wonder what the trend has been over the most recent quarters.
b) I was surprised to see that revenue is flat over time. This Q4, Q1 stuff should be managed. They should be able to move some Q4 revenue into Q1 to balance it. Here are 5 examples off the top of my head of well managed software companies that have had steady revenue ramp, and never gone backwards: VNTV, PSFT, BAAN, VRTS and RMDY (Actually, RMDY missed 1 quarter, once). ORCL jumps around a lot.
c) Risks: of course there are risks. There risks to crossing the street. I don't think ORCL is a big risk - but when you dig into it, it does appear to be a little troubling. And, I'm still looking for someone to explain - not to attack! |
