Dale:
I feel that the lax-loss selling is over; it is moving backwards; no one is waiting till December. The January effect is also moving backwards and so buying will resume earlier than January.
There are still concerns about over-capacity in Japan, Korea, and other SEA countries. But, leaders will emerge as victors since the Wall Street always pays a premium to buy leading stocks. They have considered QNTM at par with SEG and WDC, given the muted reaction to SEG price following a serious warning. I thought SEG would touch 15, but it closed above 22 that day. Gradually, though, the WS analysts (who are technically incompetent) are beginning to feel that QNTM is perhaps different. Thus, QNTM is facing just volatility, not a secular drop, while SEG and WDC are drifting downward. When QNTM emerges as the leader (assuming it will), its price will double by the middle of the next year, IMHO.
Thinking all these, hesitatingly, I covered my shorts in other stocks. Yesterday I bought more QNTM at ~27, assuming that Dell would beat even the wisper estimates. [Dell did, but there was tax-loss selling, IMHO.] I will use the cash to buy more at ~26, if QNTM reaches that level. An indication for why the market may have already discounted all its fears (or may even have over-reacted) about Asia is the price of Boeing whose main growth is based on orders from Asia. If Boeing dropped today (it is up 1.5) I would be concerned. Asian economies have a lot of muscle; though the growth cannot any longer be at the astounding pace as they have witnessed; but they will grow much faster than Europe and America.
In the mean time, however, DD makers will benefit because of deflation in Asian countries. The true negative factor for the DD makers is that they have a lot of cash that they are willing to burn until some of the competitors dies through competition. SEG tried to decimate WDC and is still trying. QNTM can still stay up due to its DLT business, while SEG tries to finish WDC until WDC becomes an acquisition target (short WDC till the acquisition?)
I remain very positive about QNTM.
Sankar |
