Roebear:
We await a catalyst that will give birth to the bull-run in the metals. As mentioned in the article, (Thank you), the pressure to fill outstanding obligations to deliver gold will overwhelm available supplies. My guess is that a deficit of better than 2-years supply looms over the market.
Of course delivery, or satisfaction of contracts to deliver with an opposing contract, when exercised, will give movment to the first-leg of the bull-run. It is not unlike an automobile dealer, for example, who's engaged in selling all of his inventory two-years out in anticipation of buying that inventory for delivery at a significant discount to the price paid by the other party. This strategy works well at the end of a bull-market through the following bear-market cycle, as the cost of the inventory continues to decline, but is a reckless gamble at the end of bear-market cycle anticipating even more decline. Especially so, while the fundamental supply and demand equation has been improving markedly, indicating incipient shortages.
I do not know which catalyst will define the first move in price, but I already recognize that many parties instrumental in creating an enviorment by which gold will move in price, are concerned about their untenable positions in the market. This leads me to believe the hay-in-the-barn is sufficiently dry for quick combustion.
Yours, T.V.H.
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