Somethings to think about:
stocks go up when there are more buyers than sellers, down when there are more sellers. The big boys, mutual funds, pension funds, brokerage houses, and other groups usually using other people's money have a great deal of effect. To a large part, they have more effect on market than any external force.
We are told each day by media that the market went up or down because of some specific reason, lets say "Japan broker fails". If market goes up in future, the failure will still be present. What has changed? We see Sector rotation, two weeks ago oil servcing is good, now it is bad. We are given earnings estimates, and some even use them to determine buy/sell, they show a consistant >75% of the time estimates are wrong. We see news about amazing products, the source manufactorer of the product. If you search the boards here, you find all sorts of experts on National and International politics, monetary policies, economics, etc. Where do they get the information? Media, brokers, and companies or from other SI experts.
Guys and girls, don't you see something wrong with this picture? You only make money long if Price goes up, short if Price goes down. It makes no difference WHY, only that it does. Spend your time trying to measure Price movements, cut off CNBC, get a discount broker where they pay salaries, don't read the "stock" or "big crash/boom" topics on net. Learn to take a loss, preserve capital and read price charts and their indicators.
You notice the regulars don't hawk stocks in the TA topics. Cheerleaders aren't needed or wanted, there are plenty of other outlets for that sort of thing. |
