Democrats' Wisconsin Worry Some Fear Walker's Surviving Recall Would Boost GOP's Chances in November
By COLLEEN MCCAIN NELSON and LAURA MECKLER With little more than two weeks until Wisconsin's gubernatorial recall election, some Democratic and union officials quietly are expressing fears that they have picked a fight they won't win and that could leave lingering injuries.
Recent polling and a head start on fundraising by Gov. Scott Walker have some Democrats concerned that the Republican will survive the June 5 recall election.
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Green Bay Press-Gazette / Associated Press Protesters in favor of recalling Republican Gov. Scott Walker gathered in Howard, Wis., early this month.
The election has taken on significance beyond Wisconsin state politics: Organized labor sees the battle as a major stand against GOP efforts to scale back collective-bargaining rights for public-sector workers, as Mr. Walker did after taking office in 2011. Some Democrats now fear mobilizing Republicans to battle the recall could carry over to help the party—and Republican Mitt Romney—in November's presidential election.
The latest polls show Mr. Walker building a small lead over Democrat Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee, with few voters remaining undecided, adding to the Democrats' concerns. Mr. Walker led 50% to 44% in a Marquette Law School Poll last week in a survey with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Over the weekend, Wisconsin's largest newspaper, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, backed Mr. Walker in the recall election. The paper called Mr. Walker's move to limit public-employee bargaining rights "an overreach of political power," but said it "is simply not enough to justify a vote against the governor."
Mike Schrimpf, communications director for the Republican Governors Association, said recent polling on candidates' favorability showed the Republican message advocating fiscal conservatism was resonating.
Democrats say they haven't come close to matching the $25 million that the Wisconsin governor has raised. Mr. Barrett entered the race late and faced a primary election, during which labor-backed groups spent more than $5 million supporting a candidate they preferred, only to see her lose. By a late April filing date, Mr. Barrett had raised $831,000.
"It feels like David vs. Goliath on the money front," said Peter Barca, the Democratic leader in Wisconsin's State Assembly, who said he was optimistic nonetheless about his party's chances.
The Democratic National Committee and President Barack Obama's re-election campaign have emphasized their commitment to bolstering Mr. Barrett's campaign. They have offered help with volunteers and get-out-the-vote efforts, and Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz plans to travel to Wisconsin for a fundraiser with Mr. Barrett. Butthe national party turned down Wisconsin Democrats' request for $500,000, one party official said.
For the left-leaning groups that have spent months trying to oust Mr. Walker, a loss would be a deflating end to a process that began with unions and their allies gathering more than 900,000 signatures to force a recall.
From the start, some in the Democratic Party worried that a Wisconsin recall could drain needed resources, fire up the conservative base and ultimately make it more difficult for Mr. Obama to win the state. Mr. Obama carried Wisconsin by 14 percentage points in 2008, and Wisconsin hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 1984. But last week's Marquette poll showed Messrs. Obama and Romney tied at 46%.
A senior official with the Romney campaign said that if Mr. Walker survives, the campaign would take a fresh look at the state. "If opportunity hits, we will capitalize," the official said.
"People are suddenly starting to talk about Wisconsin as a potential swing state, which was not the case even two weeks ago," said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former policy adviser to President Bill Clinton.
Top Democrats now say that when labor groups first raised the specter of a recall, the party's officials urged their allies in Wisconsin to reconsider. "We told them it was a bad, bad, bad idea," one Democratic official said.
A union official said both the Democratic National Committee and the Obama campaign expressed reservations. "I don't know that anyone was enthusiastic about it over there," the union official said.
Party leaders also counseled against pouring money into a contested primary ahead of the recall election, the Democratic official said.
Mr. Barca, the Wisconsin Assembly minority leader, said he had heard rumblings about the DNC's displeasure with the recall. But Wisconsin residents weren't seeking approval from Washington, he said.
Wisconsin Democrats said they are relying on their ground game to get Mr. Barrett's backers to the polls. But Mr. Galston, the Brookings fellow, said in close races, resources can be a deciding factor. The Walker television ads running on a constant loop make clear that the governor's campaign coffers are flush. And the union official said the funding disparity has him worried. "In June, I think we are going to discover how much the TV advantage matters," he said.
Write to Laura Meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com and Colleen McCain Nelson at colleen.nelson@wsj.com |
