Sorry James, but I'm afraid these latest arguments don't wash either.
DRAM and disk drive prices have plummeted for one simple reason. A tremendous increase in supply has recently come on stream, mostly in Asia, The only way the market is able to aborb this addtional product, without causing a glut is by lowering the price. This is simply the normal market process at work. It should not be equated with the argument you made previously for declining pc prices. You argued that pc prices would fall not because of expanded production, but rather due to a sudden willingness of Asian producers to sell (and produce?) at below cost.
As for your claim that the recent currency devaluations will give Asian pc producers a cost advantage they didn't have earlier, you'll have to explain that one more fully. I don't see it. The devaluations certainly won't help the Japanese relative to U.S. producers. The yen dollar exchange hasn't changed a great deal in recent months. To the extent it has, it's weakened which hurts, not helps, the Japanese to buy pc components internationally. But if we ignore this minor effect the devaluations have had about the same affect in percentage terms on both countries. Therefore, whatever cost advantage or disadvantage the Japanese held before still remain. As it happens, it's my impresson that it's mostly "disadvantages" for them. When I last looked at a ranking of the top pc manufacturers globally, I didn't see a lot of Japanese names among them.
Best of luck to you!
Geoff |
