Thanks Sergio, I've actually been in and out of APCO since it's been a pow, but only recently have I been building up my position in it, since I've been able to study it's chart and personally I think it's shown tremendous strength during the past month.
Looking at APCO's chart, you can see that the action during the last two weeks of October brought it way above top of it's uptrending channel that goes back to the high in the middle of july.
Since then it has actually been in a base-building-like period at and slightly below this uptrend line -- if you compare such overextended breakouts to a stock like RECY, you see this is different in that RECY (and most stocks I'd gather) would have a reaction bringing it down through the upper channel line at least to the middle of the channel -- but APCO has not done this.
It's actually been riding up just below the uptrend channel line for a couple weeks now, and during the last few days has been retesting the line (ie when it's been hitting 6 1/32 - 6 1/16).
This implies to me that
a) APCO is consolidating, and indeed building a new base. It's going to form a new channel on the next breakout, and is almost ready to turn the old uptrend channel line into support.
b) (less likely) APCO is in distribution at the top of it's channel, and is getting ready for a big fall to the lower channel line, which right now is creeping above 5.
I also wonder if the action at around 5 15/16 (which is always at the bid) is eroding the upper trendline (ie support selling off, not building up). This also would lead to a quick drop toward the bottom of the channel. The MM action in this case is short selling and working the spread to keep it in the 5 15/16 - 6 1/16 range. [notice how rare 6 1/16 sticks around, btw...]
[this scenario is probably not true, i'm just wary of situations where it doesn't make sense why price isn't moving up and the bid seems stuck even after a few days of moderately good volume...I also have to look for possibilities other than the "great" one we've all been waiting for...]
I know (b) is probably paranoia, but the current market makes me a little jittery! <g> I do think APCO is going UP really soon!
-dave |
