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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns:
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To: The Ox who wrote (951)5/30/2012 5:12:08 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 8288
 
I would have to say that normally it would be unusual for the market to fall leading into a presidential election. Following normal cyclical patterns it would be more likely that 2013 would be the potential market bottom. Maybe even not until 2014.



Right now both political parties and the FED are all on board attempting to prop up the economy. They have even succeeded to a certain extent but they are running out of bullets. We have a worldwide slowdown under way. Much of Europe is already in all too evident recession with monetary concerns for the debt solvency of numerous countries. China, the biggest economic engine in the world now is definitely slowing down.

Right here at home we have a tremendous debt problem of our own with no real effort being made to balance the budget. If and when efforts are made to balance the budget those efforts may damage the economy more than help it. While the market could rally higher again later this year it is quite obvious to me from sector charts and market breadth charts that this bull run is long in the tooth.



If meaningful sentiment gets overly bearish with a huge spike in the VIX and more bears than bulls in the Investors Intelligence Poll then I will be going long regardless of my concerns. But we are not there yet:



schaeffersresearch.com

RtS
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