SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : President Barack Obama
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Neil H who wrote (114473)6/3/2012 12:33:58 AM
From: ChinuSFO  Read Replies (1) of 149317
 
Now a even a arch conservative, John Mauldin is saying what most in the MSM including NYT are saying.
So that now places a burden on Romney to tell us how he would create jobs in such a challenging situation.
===========================================
A Synchronized Global Slowdown

While synchronized swimming may be an event (if an odd one) at this summer's London Olympics, a synchronized global slowdown is not an event in which you want to get a medal. We looked at a spate of bad data last week, and we got even more this week. Lost in the bad employment data this morning was the news out of Asia. Australian manufacturing is clearly in a recession. India is posting its slowest growth in nine years. China is on the edge of a downturn in manufacturing. Unemployment is rising all over Europe and is much worse than in the US. German (!!!) credit default swaps are rising and are now higher than in 2008! Bank deposits in Europe are contracting at a faster rate than at any time in the last 14 years (the farthest back I can find data).

And while I don't want to steal too much thunder from next week's Outside the Box, I will pass along just this one graph from Greg Weldon ( www.weldononline.com), showing that the PMI numbers for Europe came in almost universally bad. Note that the two-year average is getting ready to go negative.

The jobs number suggests the US is at stall speed. I wrote at the beginning of the year that if someone could guarantee 2% growth for the year I would take it. That still seems like a good bet, as I don't think we are going to get near 2%. An economic shock from Europe, which is quite possible, could push the US and most of the rest of the world into recession. The weakness in China and the rest of Asia gives even more cause for concern.

Recessions are almost always by definition deflationary. And with that thought in mind, let's turn our eyes to this week's rather puzzling moves in European interest rates.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News