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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 341.85-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (7061)6/3/2012 5:01:45 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff3 Recommendations  Read Replies (3) of 10065
 
Hi All,

In this month's review of the markets, my call for a topping process over the past few months has been a good call as the market has rolled over and have essentially erased the 2012 gains.

On May 17th, I noted the formation of a bottom and gave three scenarios:

" Bulls need a sharp rally -- the "v" bottom -- and a scorcher. I don't favor this outcome.

Bears would be content with sort of a "u" bottom carved out bottom lasting days that works off the oversold condition and then rallies to a lower high. I favor that outcome especially with Facebook going public.

Bears would also be content if the bottom falls out (today or in a few days) and we rally out of it working off the oversold condition in that manner. I don't favor that outcome."

We had a sideways and then a muted pop from that point and rolled over on Friday. So far, the idea of a 'U" shaped bottom is still favored with Friday's swoon a part of that process. But this market is tricky at this juncture for sure.

I still don't like what I'm seeing longer term. I am now open to the idea that we are in the early stages of a bear market. I would like some more data over the coming few months but the evidence compels me to view this as a distinct possibility.

Justa
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