hello 2mar$, today's report
(1) i made for me a relatively rare (cannot remember when traded currency last, maybe 2008? i was busy w/ currencies 2001 - 2007) currency trade and heavily bought chf money at hkd 8.09 to the chf 1.00 (usd 1.00 : chf 0.9598). have enough ammo to do several more salvos, but obvious each salvo for chf is one salvo less for gold:
(i) chf had spiked to usd 1.00 to chf 0.76 last august 9th before the surprise peg of chf to euro september 5th and concurrent walloping of gold from its 1,900 level, and so there is a respectable 20-30% upside should the chf : euro peg break - all pegs break eventually, especially when sufficiently stressed
(ii) i suspect snb is less resolved to continue intervening against the chf than all the powers-that-be are convicted to keeping wallop gold;
(iii) while perhaps much of usa boyz money may retreat back to usd, i suspect plenty of european boyz cash are making way to switzerland;
(iv) at some critical & psychological juncture either the chf:euro peg shall break (upon euro cratering due to whatever), and / or euro would ramp (and chf with it, due to whatever else), and / or switzerland would do temporary in-bound capital control, and / or snb starts charging negative interest on chf (in which case i intend to exit stage left)
(2) i continued to add to paper gold at hkd 15,118 per tael (usd 1,619 per troy oz):
(i) gold may break to the down then up, or up then down, or up and more up side
(ii) gold would not like break to the down and more down side
tout ou rien
tj
p.s. even so the bets are getting large, am only wagering for cash with cash, and not for bonds/stocks with cash |
