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Strategies & Market Trends : BAK - Investing

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To: batman10023 who wrote (2886)6/6/2012 2:26:56 PM
From: thatsnotluck1 Recommendation   of 3249
 
Re: Treasuries (was Two Buck Chuck...)

<<who is getting hurt in your mind (on the financials) with the sharp drop in treasury yields?>>

treasury yield drops not a big deal, but if spreads tighten such that other things see sharply lower rates, i think many life insurers are going to have some issues. actually given the accounting differences i think many european insurers are already feeling some stress, at least those with major U.S. operations.

companies with lots of fixed pay out annuities (not sure we really have many of those on this side of the pond, more common on the other side) are an issue. ditto noncan DI (i have not looked at UNM for a very long time, but it might be of interest to someone who believes rates will remain low for an extended period). maybe some of the Canadians who have a bunch of mature term to 100 stuff?

i think the real question is whether we have low rates for a few years, in which case margins get squeezed, or for long periods like Japan, in which case there are serious long term issues. a few years of low rates i do not think of as a big problem, but if rates on typical insurance company mix stay low for an extended period, watch out.
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