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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 206.52-1.2%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST
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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (24694)11/25/1997 10:56:00 PM
From: swrdfsh  Read Replies (1) of 61433
 
3 Reasons ASND will not be acquired
for at least six months:

1. ASIA. Nobody really knows what will happen. Regardless of how you read the situation, the earnings impact is difficult to predict. A prudent buyer will wait until things sort out.

2. ASND MANAGEMENT. An acquirer will need to find dependable and responsive management in place for a smooth transition. Maybe ASND now has the people in place and in six months they might have enough of a track record to attract the necessary confidence.

3. CASCADE. Even though the indigestion is over it doesn't mean they are integrated. Another big merger could complicate the completion of that process.

As traders, it's too easy for us to think of companies/stocks as just objects. Product lines, market share, and assett valuations are all very important, but it's the interpersonal and group dynamics that can really screw up a merger.

IMHO ASND ain't ripe.

I'm long ASND, way down, and optimistic. I look for ASND to resore faith with investors based on fundimentals before a takeover happens.

(This is just another opinion. Judging by the way I've played this stock, I'm probably a contrary indicator on a takeover [eg. look for a big announcement Monday]. On the other hand, Gary Korn and Maverick are great. I'm in awe of their posts. Their insights are invaluable. Every night I pray Gary is right.)

swrdfsh
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