I'll answer the question, "How high will MSFT fly?".
But only in the short term.
MSFT will advance steadily for the next bunch of weeks to 170. The move has already begun, but it's still early. We haven't got to the "oh my God, I gotta buy",(up or in) point. The call buyer enters a market order tomorrow.
The market has completed a six count Elliot sell-off with the Oct crash, and has put in an tested intermediate bottom. MSFT, IBM, and GE, are poised to make new alltime highs perhaps by next week. IBM should have no trouble touching 125 by, say, Jan exp. though it may get there by Xmas. The DOW utilities today closed at an all-time high. For the utes to lead a market breakout is profoundly bullish. Upside short term market targets: DOW 9000. SP 1000.
It's never wise to short a stock breaking out of a high plateau like MSFT especially in light of the fact that the shares are very sensitive to marginal demand, but insensitive to marginal supply. Further, there is booked supply above that will give the move extension. Same is true for GE and IBM.
I know it's hard to believe any of this, but the interesting reason why it will develop is that the pros have been dumping for months and they are generating their own superficial bearishness. Meanwhile the public is bullish like circa '50s & '60s, creating a tension which in a low interst environment can only be resolved by an explosive advance. And we have Asia, evaluations, and Sadam to provide the smokescreen.
Bill, I wrote this for you because I know you think I'm a jerk. |
