| RFP is a very cheap play, it most likely should be a larger position for me than what it is on valuation and balance sheet strength. I am speculating Buffet was buying Tesco on Wed the volume was higher than usual. I will do my best to let you know when I believe the bottom is in but I wish I knew exactly when because I would be 100% cash and then when it hit I would be all in. A big part of me determining when to go all in is what some of my buddies are doing and saying you know FPA, Watsa and even Faber and Rodgers, but the 1st 2 hold much more weight IMO. I think there is tremendous value in financials, Europe, and the commodity space right now if there is not another leg down in the global economy. If someone wanted to go all in and call it a day the largecap multinationals look like no brainers here especially with 10 year t-bill yields well under 2%. Hard seeing names like TSCDY.pk, JNJ, CSCO, BRKB etc.. Not giving you at least a 6% return a year over the next ten years @ these levels. I am on defense right now so the positions in the more volatile names are light. Here is the current game plan subject to change @ anytime lol. If the S&P hits 1150 that would be a 20% correction and I most likely would be down to your cash position, but I still would be non aggressive in my holdings they would be in very high quality names. Then if the S&P kept dropping from there then I would try to slowly sell the high quality and get more aggressive. Who really knows what the future is going to bring these are far from normal times so IMO you are smart for not risking everything like most money mangers are doing. I will take a look @ olam I never invested in a Singapore company before and I have done pretty well with Chinese companies in the past, but it proved to be almost 100% luck. The best way to play China IMO for little guys like me an you would have to be commodities, Tech and multinational companies like Buffet & Yack own. Mungers BYDDF.pk is near its lows and I am not a buyer, but if I saw Berkshire increase its position I would most likely buy it. |
