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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs

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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (51292)	6/11/2012 4:42:06 PM
From: TimF	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 71588

The blog posted chart you showed doesn't even show a single complete business cycle. Because its not talking about a full business cycle, let alone a longer term change. Its about the decrease in labor force particularization rate since the start of the recession. The participation rate drop for 55+ workers has been a lot lower than for younger workers. That says nothing about the longer term trend, which is indeed as you suggest, that the increasing numbers of retirees will put significant downward pressure on the labor force participation rate. I'm not disputing that point, and the blog post I posted doesn't dispute it. But the recent significant short term drop apparently isn't strongly related to that longer term trend. It is likely that any larger demographic trend is completely invisible in the very short-term chart you posted, swamped by the much larger short-term business cycle and Great Recession impacts. Exactly. And the issue of the post I quoted was the short term trends, not the longer term changes.

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