I don't really call myself a 'bear' at all. At worst, I'm a realist
who knows when the party is over. (or taking a break, as the case
may be...) Believe me, if the fundamentals re-appear, I'll be
back in with both feet!
I made a PILE of cash in Iomega on it's way up from 1 or so. Cashed
in about 90% of it in early May, and I'm still playing with the rest of it.
(I want to work this remaining 10% into my retirement stash..)
I always told myself all the way along that I would NOT sell until
(1) I had enough to buy a house, car, kids education
(2) the fundamentals changed
Well, #1 happened and I cashed in my 90%. I let the rest of the 10%
ride until the Q2 report. To me, the Q2 report showed signs of the
fundamentals changing. So I bailed (at 23 and change). Here is what
I'm concerned about:
#1. rebates
#2. fad factor
#3. 'giving' away drives to OEMs, hurting margins.
#4 the Jazz factor
#5 number of shares
Let's take #1: rebates: In my experience, ALWAYS a bad sign. The
bulls can put any spin on this they want, but I'll never buy any of it.
Laws of supply and demand take precedence over emotion. in ECON 101,
when your product is not moving (or inventories high), LOWER THE PRICE!
#2: 'fad' factor. This is just my 'gut' feeling here. but Q2 showed
me that growth is starting to slow just a tad. and I'm worried
about saturation. (everybody who wants one of these things already
has one)
#3. as OEMs come on board, the mix will move more away from consumers
who pay the premiums for the Zip.
#4. MY OPINION: there is more going on here than we know. I believe
that they can't get the costs down yet and that they are difficult
to make. And where was the large JAZ contribution that was expected
in Q2??
#5. Too many splits, too little time. Reminds me of IGT in it's hayday.
Lastly, I've made lots of money by being somewhat fickle and not being
attached to a stock. I can love a stock one day, then hate it the next.
When something changes (either technically or fundamentally) I'm out!
But for those of you still in: In the long run, there is little downside
to this stock. There is a clear floor at 10 or so. I just think it will
be awhile before action occurs here again, so I've moved to more
fertile ground. The reason why I still post here is that the entire
Iomega experience has intrigued me, and I can't keep away from this
board! It's a great learning experience watching how the content of
posts changes depending on stock price. It is a great indicator. And
I want to learn if I'm wrong.. It will be great experience for future
opportunities...
good luck!
kp
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