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Strategies & Market Trends : Candlestick Charting--The unknown indicator

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To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (802)	11/26/1997 4:25:00 AM
From: semi engineer	Read Replies (1) of 1589

Steve Thanks for the opinion and here is mine on your list. I do not do TA but this is my engineering intuition. MSFT: Do not follow to make any comment. INTC: Will not go up until Intel announces how they will address sub $1000 PC market. Intel is working on a strip down version of P2 without any expensive package(P7??? slot). Intel is working on it extremely hard. AMD is a good alternative but cannot support volume. HP almost announce it and decided not to based on availability of the chip. intel will not move until the new chip is designed and knock off AMD and Cyrix in most systems. I think AMD and Cyrix will be in trouble by next summer. The new chip may be AMD killer. But I just do not see Intel taking off soon. Asia currency problem may impact the growth of unit sales. AMAT: With Korean financial fiasco, the spending will be very frugal. The government is trying to find a scapegoat and Samsung/Hyundai/LG could find themselve in the corner on the capital spending. Expect AMAT to slow its growth but maintain profitability by taking off market share from weaker sisters: NVLS, LRCX and others. 80 Mil loyalty from ASMIF on 4th QTR would not hurt bottomline but IMHO 1998 growth may be than 20%(no data just speculation). All late announcements are coming from Fab Foundries, not regular semi guys. Not good news. DELL: I don't understand this stock. All other PC makers are showing weakness but this is not breaking down. I just think I am approximately 3 months too early. I am planning to purchase five(5) 99 Jan 65 put every time, this thing hit $85. This should be $50 stock by end of next year. With Intel addressing sub 1000 PC market, I think this will collapse. Will see. QNTM: Again, I believe big funds are unloading this. Last week, I found out that Fujitsu Disk Plant is in Thailand. I guess HP uses them. I am seeing $159 3.5 GB and $189 4.3 GB Fujitsu Disk in Silicon Valley area. Quantum 2.3 GB with SCSI is listed at $219 and IBM 3.5 GB is listed at $189 in the same store. I understand that QNTM is preferred vendor of my PC; however, I am sure PC vendors will start demanding a rebate soon or start cancelling orders. This happens all the time with DRAM and SRAM. I am sure DD is not immune to this practice. The current management forecast is too rosy. Impossible. As a top quality Disk manufacturer, QNTM will withstand the heat little longer but its price may be very similar to WDC price within three to six months(whatever that may be). This is completely different from most opinion on QNTM thread. CSCO: I think CSCO is a great company. It should do well but the price too high for the current market. What do you think??? Have no position on this because I do not understand the business. In general, I am down on Fab equipment but I am extremely bullish on KLIC, and TER. It should outperform the market significantly. I am moderately bull on semi except Intel and AMD. Bearish on computer stock. Cannot believe DELL and CPQ will keep this up. If the industry is so good, MUEI an Gateway would not have its problem. I think they will improve and will slow down DELL and CPQ train. Thanks for sharing your thought. Are you French???

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