Regarding TA, try the following site:
vectorvest.com
It slams SNDK. It also slammed my biotech holding, INHL, which trades at 31.5. According to Vector, INHL has a value of $2.90. You mean TA can't predict the value of potential high growth stocks? Go figure.
I do not put much faith in TA, except that many people use it for short term indicators for short-term buying or selling. Clearly if everyone is looking at the same TA methods (I know there are many, but most people use several anyway), it is a self-fullfilling excerise. On the other hand, I think it is clearly not insightful for a long-term buy and hold investor. If I was trading in a tax-free IRA, then, yes, I would sell some SNDK now and hope to buy more in the low 20s. But for most of us who will incurr capital gains and losses, buying and selling SNKD on "weekly" averages seems counterproductive.
I remember first following this thread just prior to the earnings release and a guy, Louis, was telling everyone to watch out as it fell from 38 to 30. No doubt he was right, but TA would not predict that the CEO would dampen fantastic earnings. Clearly TA is a proxy that works in some cases and not in others. I believe it is one of those "beat the system" tactics that the proponents point to the times when it is right, but forget about the times that it is wrong.
I have been in SNDK since the 12-14 range. I sold at 24, bought back at 19. Have bought at 30, 29, 25, 24, 29. In hindsight, I should have only sold at 39, and bought back in at 22. I bet some TA charts would predict those optimal two transactions. I also bet I could chart the weather patterns here in Georgia against my golf scores and tell you which days I should have shot 75 and which days I should have shot 85 based on a chart of my various scores over the last 50 weeks.
For those of you who use TA, great and I wish you the best of luck and I appreciate your insights; but for me, I can't affort to buy and sell and incur the capital gains coupled with the risk that this volitale stock will shoot up dramatically on various announcements about sales of digital cameras, OEMs agreements, or new products like the MMC and I would be left on the sidelines waiting for the TA to say buy buy buy. Since holding at the low teens, this stock is proned to move quickly as the momentum players get involved.
Best of Luck to all of us and let's hope that in one year, we will be discussing the trends and weighted averages between 50-60 and all that jazz.
Jason |
