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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 128.04

+0.7%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jim Ilchyshn who wrote (3580)	11/26/1997 10:20:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (3) of 116873

bearish post from Kitco forum kitcomm.com Date: Wed Nov 26 1997 00:01 steady (Gold indicating DEFLATION- $100-$180 gold price possible) ID#285309: I am begining to believe that the plunge in the gold price, in spite of the world's financial crises is signaling a severe DFEFLATION ahead. We have gone through a 1929 type crash in the secondary gold stocks and very soon complete the same for the XAU type blue chips. We are not down just 60% from the XAU high but considering the DOW rise within the last 3 years we have collapsed to what I believe is within some % of the bottom of an abyss. I guess we should start SERIOUSLY discussing what one should do to prepare for $100-$180 gold price. We should not be blind to this possibility and STOP talking only about that gold is ready to explode. Let's look at reality and learn from what is taking place around us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I agree with most of you about CBs gold manipulations , however, may be, just maybe gold is lot smarter than we give it a credit for. It typically looks beyond 6-12 months and has a great "nose" for what may be on the horizon. I also believe that eventually , in the case of severe deflation, the gold price will rise from the bottom and surge forward since severe inflation or perhaps hyperinflation may follow deflation. This may be few years hence. In the interim lets look at the implications of what severe deflation may mean to our investment strategies since . Last thought. If severe deflation is in the cards and it may arrive rather fast, I think that being in cash is the only way to go and wait for the bottom and then, and only then switch to gold. Once again, it is possible that we may be talking about a lot lower gold prices than today's. Do not forget that there is nothing any government can do about deflation since it is driven by the collective state of investors' psychology. SO let's get serious and look at the other, perhaps very likely possibility. ANY COMMENTS????

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