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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns:

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To: Robert O who wrote (1014)	6/21/2012 11:45:44 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 8239

I wish I could tell you more about CHTP than what I'm about to write! They have an effective drug that works for some people but not all. The drug has been in use in Japan for over 20 years but the FDA seems to want more and more studies to approve it here in the US. I suppose in the US its the nature of the beast. The way everyone seems to run to a lawyer and sue, for any and everything, is the problem. The concept of taking an "experimental" drug with the hope of success but then wanting to sue the company if it doesn't work exactly the way the family had hoped... well, this is a major part of the problem. From what I understand, the Doctors on the FDA panel that would have possibly used the drug in their work all voted in favor of it. The doctors from other areas of expertise rejected it based on what they said were incomplete studies. I may be wrong on this but that's the way it was explained to me by someone who knows a lot more about these things than I do. Neurosurgeons on the panel voted in favor of approval but others from different specialties voted for more studies. As I understand the process, this is not unusual. Politics, big pharma, and several other issues get in the way of approving drug usage. From all my research, it looks very promising but the "end game" keeps getting pushed out farther into the future. I am wrong often but if I had to guess, the opportunity to buy CHTP around a dollar and change is past. I respect the size of the short position in this stock, so one has to be aware of the amount of money being bet against CHTP. I thought that if it had been approved, the stock would have been worth around $7 to $10/share. That may still be the case but more likely the cost of waiting and more studies will likely reduce the ultimate price the company is worth based on the one drug. I think the cost of this process has led the company to delay or stop the development of a few other interesting paths. As is often the case, promising solutions get dumped or delayed when a small company tries to go it alone.

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