Ace:
Even if IAS is able to bring DWM to market, it will be a long-term investment because of the need to get everyone using DWM, then, to get it standardized, and then to replace so much equipment already in place with DWM stuff. So I think that the future of DWM (without debating its technical merits) isn't altered a great deal by these new modem announcements, in my opinion.
The limit for modem speeds isn't actually the copper wires used in the system; they can handle much more bandwidth than 3 kHz. The limit is set by the phone company because of the operating limits of the switching and digitizing equipment used to make the whole system work. So, if you can "negotiate" with the phone companies and in some way get them to allow you to use their euqipment in specialized ways, you can get higher data rates. This is, I believe, what Rockwell, Motorola and others have done. I assume that the new modem designs will negotiate a connection with the local phone exchange which will allow them to established a connection with more "preveleges" than a normal voice call. The modem and the switch would be connected in a way which would support the higher data rates. This is technically feasible; always has been, actually. I guess when you consider that ISDN, xDSL and other technologies depend on special connections to the phone system, and have been shown to be useable under normal conditions, this concept is the next logical step. It didn't make sense until we knew that the analog modulation technology was "topped out", but now it does.
I think in some ways this announcement steals some thunder from IAUS, but also, I don't think it materially affects their proposed developments. If they are able to send several hundred thousand bits per second over the phone lines it won't matter whether others are at one-tenth or one fifth that; they will still be way ahead. Of course, the technical issues remain the obstacle, and will until IAUS can publicly demonstrate DWM in operation over POTS.
As far as the stock goes, who knows? Stock rarely tracks reality anyway; sometimes it goes up on bad news and down on good news! And sometimes it doesn't. I wish I knew the "secret"; I suppose everyone does.
regards,
Larry |
