sam - Talking of the large short position you say:
<<IMHO a bullish sign>>.
This is a frequent claim made on SI, and one with which I usually disagree.
First, it is impossible to tell how much of the short position is actually a hedge against, e.g., an option position.
Second, in general, shorts are generally more sophisticated and better informed than the "average" investor. Studies have shown that a high short position is usually a bad sign for a stock. (In the particular case of AGPH, I personally think the shorts are wrong at this price level, but that's what makes a market.)
Third, it is never a good thing for a stock to have people publically and privately badmouthing the stock. For a striking example of this look at the ZONA thread, where a well-known short player (Asensio) actually put out a press release attacking the stock. Asensio is also short AGPH.
It is true that now and then you do get a short squeeze. However, I think that's pretty unlikely here.
Personally, I have a very small long position in AGPH (bought in the 80's pre-split), which I would increase on any further decline. I think the earnings are going to continue to beat estimates, but I fear the street will never give those earnings a substantial PE ratio, because of concerns (justified or not) about the longevity of Viracept. (This has been my consistent view of AGPH since I first posted on this thread many months ago).
Peter |
