MNTA off ~20% AH to the low $13s after Teva wins the lower court battle over the Copaxone patents, implying protection for Teva for ~3 years. Obviously, MNTA will appeal, but that process will eat half of the remaining patent life. Still have a small core position. Once we get movement on the generic enoxaparin litigation (court's opinion on why it lifted the injunction -- due any day -- might allow tea leaves to be read on the ultimate outcome), I might add this fall, as I feel that eventually MNTA will get FDA approval for generic Copaxone. Indeed, some were interpreting MNTA's recent strength as anticipation of imminent approval. I am not sure how the market perceives the enoxaparin case, but my guess is low double digits would discount losses on all legal fronts. In any event, with Amphastar's delaying tactics, that case won't resolve until the middle of next year at earliest (a lower court loss by Amphastar might lead to settlement; should MNTA lose & need to appeal, there will not be a settlement). Looking for $11s. So not a buying op at these prices, IMO, not quite yet.
Cheers, Tuck |
