Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 297.50

-2.6%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)	6/24/2012 8:02:01 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 95378

That was a tremendous post RtS. It should be selected as a candidate for "post of the year" for Silicon Investor. Thanks for all the work in putting that post together and sharing it with all the readers of this thread. IMO sector analysis is very instructive. At the moment we have just gone through a phase of retrenchment by the semi(s) for the past 3 months after a good runup from last fall through the 1st quarter of this year. Because of all the postings here on a weekly basis, the history is there for all to see in a lot of detail. The last 4 weeks has seen a struggle by the semi(s) to "flatten out" and perhaps try to start another uptrend. For several months now, earnings estimates for Cur Yr and Nxt Yr have been trending to the downside. Nothing serious yet, because most analysts have been looking for a stronger 2nd half for 2012 going into 2013. I thought that might be true as well, but now I am not so sure after MU released their 3rd quarter earnings this past week. Their consensus estimate was for a -0.20 number, but they missed by 0.12 to the downside making the actual number -0.32. This miss to the downside by that magnitude caused consensus estimates for Cur Yr and Nxt Yr to be reduced by -0.36 and -0.35 to -1.01 for 2012 and only 0.23 for 2013. A picture of Mu's situation is shown below. Most of the time the semis are out leading the market, both on the upside and downside. Right now the sector has been in a downtrend, trying the past 3 to 5 weeks to find a bottom and mount a comeback, but maybe this is just a "pause" on a continuing downtrend.

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