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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 297.50-2.6%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (56675)6/25/2012 10:51:15 AM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 95378
 
Well, now there are 11 posts in my "Keepers".... congratulations!
It is really nice to see the sector info along with Fidelity's business cycle graph all on one post. Thanks.
Oh yes I am sure we will see another bear market but hitting new highs on poor market breadth is not out of the question first:
That is the whole trouble in a nutshell.

Also, if you looked at charts of Amazon.com vs Intel in the summer of 2000, would you have guessed that Intel would be a value stock today with a nice dividend and tiny PE while Amazon is still valued on future expectations?

I'm pleased with taking a lot of profits in Intel in 1999 and 2000 and holding out for $20 recently to buy the shares back but I probably would have made a ton more money selling ALL my Intel at the very top in 2000 and buying Amazon.

What is odd, if you price Amazon similar to how you value Intel, I think Intel would be higher.

Facebook's Valuation Vs. Proven Internet Companies



This chart shows Intel and Amazon with dividends reinvested. It spent more time than the chart indicates under $20...

Here it is without dividends (hope this works and updates)



You and many others talk about stocks bottoming when the PE is around 7 as they did in past bear markets. I keep that mind often but how do we figure that PE with the safe rate of return of CDs or Treasuries?

Historical CD Rates

The raw data here Raw CD Rate Data
shows you could get 12% in a CD in 1974.... Hell, today you are lucky to get 0.35% without swapping banks to chase rates. I can get nearly 10 times that with Intel and AMAT stock... so I've been buying on weakness... and hope to hold through any bear markets where I can reinvest the dividends in cheaper shares.

My grandfather retired around 1974 and I remember two ideas he told me that were key:

#1 My parents generation were morons for giving him so much in Social Security that he broke even in months yet I'd be lucky to see any of the Ponzi scheme money

#2 He retired when the income from his stocks gave he and my grandmother enough cash flow to live the life they wanted for retirement.

I argued with him constantly but I think his two ideas about retirement were spot on.
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