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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (12097)6/28/2012 3:04:52 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
please refer to the post that I am responding to as you read this post.

........."On Mar 2009, the 2007-2009 bear market abruptly came to an end at 666.79 via a selling
climax. We find it uncanny that the bear decline stopped within 1 point of approaching our
665.36 projection based primarily on the pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug
1982 to Oct 2007 rally
. Does this then imply SPX can now progress higher and retest the
prior Mar 2000 and Oct 2007 highs at 1,553 and 1,576, respectively? In the past year or so
SPX has cleared above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2007-2009 decline at 1,228.74 as
well as its 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1,361.50. Last year’s May 2011 to Oct 2011
correction of -20+ % may have been a shot across the bow warning of a maturing cyclical
recovery, but the ability of SPX to surge above its crucial 10-month ma (now at 1,288) and its
30-month ma remains (now at 1,221) suggests the 3-year old cyclical bull rally can persist
until the end of this year. In addition, the golden cross monthly buy signal remains intact
reinforcing the sustainability of cyclical bull. Nonetheless, the 10-mo ma and 30-mo ma are
still far apart with current spread of 66 points. The impending convergence between these
two key moving averages suggests an inflection point later this year or into early 2013
. If
10-mo ma falls below its 30-mo ma this confirms a technical sell and signals the start of a
cyclical bear decline possibly to 850 +/- 50."
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