Let me try to answer you this way. As you point out, the 17 stocks in the table are a long way from being the full 30 stocks that presently make up the SOX index.
However, in keeping data over the years, it became obvious to me that you don't need the exact makeup of the SOX in order to indicate trends by other means. I have 2 stock tables that I presently use to follow the semi market. The first is what I call the Group that I started years ago and it is now down to 17 stocks with consolidations and "dropouts" as the years have gone by. The second stock table I call the SOXM(SOX Modified) which is now 19 of the 30 stocks presently in the SOX.
From these 2 tables I chose the 17 stocks that report on a CY/FY basis to make up the table under discussion. I feel that these 17 stocks provide a representative sample of the semi sector including semi-equips and semiconductor suppliers. The purpose of assembling these stocks out of the 2 total groups is to take the "time element" out of the stock comparison for this particular table. This also allows easy Calendar comparison for yearly earnings data.
Having said all that, of course there is a "leap" involved in making comparisons to the SOX index data, but I am not looking for that exactness. What I am looking for is a representative sample that will show trends in actual and estimated earnings in Calendar quarters and years. I feel confident that the group of 17 stocks in the earnings table is a good enough indicator for the analysis I am putting together. It is nice to be totally "exact", but that requires a lot more effort, and I don't think the payoff is worth it. Earnings estimates usually change in part for both the Group and SOXM tables on a weekly basis as shown in the weekly postings. Sometimes these changes are very large and sometimes they are only a penny or two. Taken together with a group of stocks these changes average out and trends can be discerned by watching the week to week totals. For a good look at these trends in earnings estimates, Cur Yr and Nxt Yr, for both the Group and the SOXM(SOX), look at the latest table dating back to August 2008.
Message 28223840
In summary, what I see when I look at the earnings table for the 17 stocks is a strong year in 2010 and a slightly stronger year in 2011 for actual earnings. Then I see a fairly big drop in 2012 estimated earnings compared to 2010 and 2011. This is already borne out by the 1st quarter actual earnings for March 2012 at 5.18, down 3.52, or -40% compared to the 8.70 of the 1st quarter for Mar 2011. The estimated yearly earnings for 2012 and 2013 are roughly comparable at the moment to the numbers for 2010 and 2011. At the moment then, and it could obviously change as we move forward in time, there is no earnings driver to move the Group, and SOXM(SOX) numbers much higher over the next 18 months.
IMO, the big miss by MU reporting their 3rd quarter earnings for May, was not a good sign. There could be more misses for those 17 stocks in the earnings table coming up for the June quarter. If this is true, look for more deterioration for the estimated yearly numbers for 2012 and 2013 in the present table. This would be even more pressure on the SOX index not rising in the future. And take my word for it<BG>, if these estimated numbers for the 17 stocks in the table take a "hit" to the downside, the overall earnings estimates at the bottom line for the 30 stocks in the SOX index will also take a hit.
Don |
