I am the world's worst short-term stock market predictor, probably way worse than the toss of a coin, and my chart-reading and TA skills are quite suspect. So rather than trading positions short term, I'm much better at identifying macro market trends and individual opportunities, and in 20+ years of doing this, I'm well ahead of the market, and interested enough to keep plowing some of what the government lets me keep back into the market.
My current thoughts are:
While we are by no means in the middle of an economic expansion, I think the outlook for corporate profits remains reasonably strong. US corps have a great track record of being able to get more productivity out of its employees, and demand shouldn't slump enough to drive down profits. They may be able to catch a break on commodity prices, and increase margins.
Helicopter Ben has done equity investors the favor of a lifetime by keeping interest rates at absurdly low levels. With fully 1/2 the Dow stocks having a yield higher than the 30 yr bond, Ben is forcing investors into stock just for the yield.
In spite of that, sentiment is at levels closer to that normally associated with lows than highs. This has the potential to really push the market to higher highs than many can expect.
Money supply is generous, and there's also a ridiculous amount of cash on the sidelines. It's gonna have to go somewhere--guess where I think a lot of it's gonna go?
So, what could be the engine to get this country's economy started again? I think the upcoming explosion in domestic energy production is going to bring thousands of new jobs, trillions of $$ in potential tax revenue, and $$in the pockets of every American in the form of lower fuel and energy prices. We just need to get the proper leaders to unleash it. The technology is there, the manpower is there, the American people just need to speak up and let their voices be heard, and get government to get its foot off the brake.
I don't know what the market is going to do this week, or next, but long term I'm very bullish. I do really enjoy your day-to-day market analysis. |
