Technical analysis for shorts & longs Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 690.64

+1.9%

Feb 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (48208)	7/4/2012 3:30:08 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 70601

All the indices gapped higher last week in response to what was perceived as a short term solution to Europe's financial crises. Friday was essentially an indecision day as not one wanted o hold positions over the weekend. There was follow through on most of the indices today.; SP500 confirmed the bounce. It really needs to set a new high to get traders off the sidelines. After the employment data on Friday, we will start earnings season in earnest. I expect lots of volatility as earnings season progresses. For now the indice has a positive bias, but I would be sitting this one out till the test of the recent high to go long or short depending on the test of the high. Same comment on the DOW. It need to set a new high to get traders off the sidelines. DOW transports trying to break the range again. If it does look for leadership from this sector. Lower fuel prices may be the catalyst as long as economic activity is not perceived to be slowing too much. COMPQ breaking a very rough looking symmetric triangle. It has a shot at setting a new high because of the width of the opening of the triangle. Financial sector now through the 50 day SMA that will trigger interest in intermediate traders. Gold trading volumes a little suspect. It need to clear the resistance level just above this 1590 level to get traders interested. Energy stopping short of breaking the down trend line, but has cleared the 50 day SMA. The volume looks heavy so the move is being supported. Earnings will tell the truth so I would not be hold positions through earnings unless you really know the story and believe it long term. Sentiment is still turning on a dime; Nice strength the Russell 2000 small cap index, but on decelerating volume. Wait for a new high with confirming volume. The low volume may be due to the July 4 holiday, but we need to holiday effect to be in full force to confirm the recent move on all the indices. Natural gas broke the 200 SMA but the volume has been light. We need to see a follow through day which might be tough given that nat gas has been up 3 days in a row and it is approaching a resistance level based on volume by price. I don't like the fact the VIX dropped during this recent rally. Voltality should still be high due to the gap up. The complacency means traders are not afraid and the market needs to climb a wall of worry.

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