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Technology Stocks : PairGain fundamentals
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To: Clam Clam who wrote (15)11/26/1997 5:21:00 PM
From: Andreas Helke   of 36
 
I think it is almost impossible to project PairGains future business. In HDSL the easy money has probably already been made. Now we still have a healthy growth business but the growth rates slow down and more competitors are entering the field.
Pairgain devices depend on the demand for second phone lines. This demand may be reduced by cable modems and DSL which allow net access without tying up a POTS phone line.
I think the really big future market will be DSL for broadband network access. There it is still unclear how the market will be distributed among SDSL, ADSL and VDSL. PairGain is one of the companies with a less optimistic forcast for nearterm ADSL success. But in the industry far more companies are trialing or developing equipment for ADSL than for SDSL.
PairGains SDSL contract with US West alone may generate enough business to provide a nice boost to PaiGains business in a few quarters. This is a major reason for my decision to abondon my original plan to take profits at $30. I bought additional shares this spring and after a paper loss of a few dollars I decided that it was worthwile to wait a few months for the likely recovery of PairGains share price. It turned out that the dip to $16 came first. If PairGain drops below $20 again I will probably buy more shares. Otherwise I will just keep my current shares.

Andreas
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