Apple ‘Monitor’ Shows Big June Drop, Says Topeka
By Tiernan Ray
July 9, 2012, 1:56 P.M. ET
blogs.barrons.com
Topeka Capital Markets’s Brian White today reiterates a Buy rating on Apple ( AAPL) shares and a $1,111 price target, while warning that June sales data for a basket of Taiwanese suppliers to the company’s personal computers were “well below historical seasonal trends.”
The “Apple Monitor,” as White terms the basket of companies, showed a 13% month-over-moth decline in sales in June, far worse than the average 1% uptick in the month over the course of the last seven years. For the suppliers in that basket, about 50% to 60% of sales come from Apple products, White estimates.
White Avers the drop-off is probably a result of some pause in Apple product buying in advance of new products expected “in coming months.”
He doesn’t specify, but one could guess that might include the next version of Apple’s iPhone. White also thinks some of the drop may have to do with a general decline in IT buying affecting sales of non-Apple products, which would in turn effect total revenue for the suppliers.
White sees the full-quarter result as below Street estimates for Apple’s revenue but above Apple’s own outlook:
We estimate June quarter sales for the Apple Monitor fell by 8% sequentially and well below the historical uptick of 15%. This performance is below our Apple sales projection of down 1% (Street has down 5%) for 3QFY12, but still above the Company’s outlook that calls for a 13% QoQ decline. Over the past five years, Apple has grown sales by 8% sequentially in the June quarter. Keep in mind that the percentage change in sales for the Apple Monitor will deviate from Apple’s sales performance, but should move in a similar direction.
Apple shares today are up $7.24, or 1.2%< at $613.01. |
