Neopath (NPTH) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Neopath (NPTH)

NPTH 0.000600

0.0%

Mar 7 3:00 PM EST

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To: RON BARNES who wrote (65)	11/26/1997 7:15:00 PM
From: Sigmund	Read Replies (1) of 178

I wonder about your year timeframe. It is my understanding that the FDA will be making their decision on the PMA by the end of February although it could be earlier. If it is a positive decision the stock should go up significantly at that time. Negative is of course very very bad for the company but I am optimistic. What happens after the anticipated FDA approval? They role out their primary screening selling plan. How long before we know how successful this is? I think you are right that we would know this within two or at most three quarters. Is this the way you are looking at it? How about a merger or being acquired? I would think that this is a possibility. I have no information on this but NeoPath is a single product company (excluding Pathfinder which is small). A company that markets to labs would have reduced incremental selling costs so such an acquisition of NeoPath would make a lot of sense to some companies. It would also be a way to have more experienced management deal with the operational stage of the business. There are combinations within this sector that also make sense. NeoPath and Cytec or NeoPath and Accumed come to mind. There seems to be a lot of risk for investors but I also think the upside could be larger than a double. I would think that $25 is a reasonable target for shortly after FDA approval (based on the chart) if that comes about. If the company is very successful at rolling out the primary screening, I would think that a 20% further increase in price is too conservative. On the other hand, the sort rate requested in this PMA may be too low to result in rapid market acceptance. NeoPath may then go back and request a higher sort rate. This might take an additional six months. They may have to do more trials to justify the higher rate. They may need to modify their algorithm or add AI capability to get the higher rate. We need more people on this thread to help us all figure out how this might play out. Why is there such a lack of interest in this company on SI? Cytec too draws little interest on SI. NSIX gets more postings. It might make sense to create a combined thread for all Pap test companies. That might make for a more spirited interaction. What do you think about that?

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