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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 256.90

-1.7%

10:30 AM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (12184)	11/26/1997 10:24:00 PM
From: Kumar Nathan	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Paul: The kind of projection we have in this chip industry is that silicon usage is going to increase by at least 5 times that what is happening today. We expect China & India to comeout in a big way. The combination of this new and emerging market alone is more than 10 times of current day silicon consumption. There is going to be whole lot of innovation go on. MultiMedia is going to dominate most part of next few years. DVD is going to be the order. I can guarantee you, within 4 years you will be completely changing all the gadgets in your living room. New Digital TV by 2002, New DVD player & Recorder, New Audio System etc., etc., You will be completely rewiring your house within 10 years because every equipment will be controlled by your computer. You will find more silicon into modern day cars. Electric Cars is going to be common within 10 years. This increase the silicon content. There is going to be huge growth in telecom and networking area. Look at FCC auction. It is purely government selling the airway spectrum. No equipment are sold and companies paid more than US$15Billion for that. We have to ask their NPV and IRR. For such kind of investments the Payback should be within 5 years or so. Let us do the backward calculations, in order to get 15Billion to breakeven within 5 years the companies should have a revenue of atleastUS$60-80Billion to recoup it. In addition if you want to make profit you have to add several billion revenues. Now you can figure out how big the cellular market is. There is no cellular phone without silicon. I can go on and on. In a nut shell I can categorically say much of those silicon revolution depend heavily on AMAT. AMAT is kinpin in that. Regards Kumar

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