Declining confidence in the nation’s economic prospects appears to be the most powerful force influencing voters as the presidential election gears up, undercutting key areas of support for President Obama and helping give his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an advantage on the question of who would better handle the nation’s economic challenges, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
DOCUMENT: Results of The New York Times/CBS Poll
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Despite months of negative advertising from Mr. Obama and his Democratic allies seeking to define Mr. Romney as out of touch with the middle class and representative of wealthy interests, the poll shows little evidence of any substantial nationwide shift in attitudes about Mr. Romney.
But with job growth tailing off since spring and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, wondering aloud whether the labor market is “stuck in the mud,” the poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved.
In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to be gaining momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.
For all of the Washington chatter that Mr. Romney’s campaign has seemed off-kilter amid attacks on his tenure at Bain Capital and his unwillingness to release more of his tax returns, the poll shows that the race remains essentially tied, with 45 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Romney if the election were held now and 43 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Obama.
Including voters who lean toward a particular candidate, Mr. Romney has 47 percent to Mr. Obama’s 46 percent.
Both results are within the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. But it is the first time Mr. Romney has shown a numeric edge in the Times/CBS poll since he emerged from the primaries as the presumptive nominee. Mr. Obama had a three-point advantage in March. The two were each favored by 46 percent in April.
The poll, conducted between July 11 and 16 and including 982 registered voters, was reflective of the national mood, not the views of voters in the handful of swing states most likely to decide the outcome — and where most of the campaign advertising war is being waged. For instance, surveys last month by Quinnipiac University in Ohio and Pennsylvania — where millions of dollars in TV advertising is being spent — showed Mr. Obama with leads over Mr. Romney in both states.
Some polls suggest that the attacks are affecting perceptions in some battleground states.
But the Times/CBS poll nonetheless underscores a national trendline in which the economy remains the dominant force in the campaign, regardless of outside events like the Supreme Court ruling on Mr. Obama’s health care law or the daily bric-a-brac of the trail.
In a reversal from the Times/CBS Poll in April, more Americans say they disapprove of the way Mr. Obama is handling his job, 46 percent, than say they approve of it, 44 percent, although the difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. |
