I've seen companies in trouble selling at quite significant discounts to their cash often enough.
I think that $6 Billion dollar line you are presenting as an impenetrable barrier was perhaps built by a gentleman named Maginot? "I predicted that the Germans will not cross that line, and I was right" ? Sounds familiar...
I do think your thinking PROCESS in considering what you have in arriving at that guess isn't in error by all that much... It's still an issue, though, that it fails in not having accounted for the (easily massaged) numbers never being "static" entities in a fixed relationship to "value"... rather than dynamic entities in a dynamic relationship...
It appears Elop has made a similar calculus... which explains the NOK focus on trying to "massage" the cash management... while hoping to succeed in distracting people while tricking them into focusing on that massaged number in cash as a complete and effective proxy for "value"...
The # in the cash "looks" like it is "stable"... so, therefore, the "value" is stable ?
LOL!!!
I've done a similar analysis... with a more dynamic focus... and have determined that the "dollar per dollar" valuation based on the cash position... has them overvalued, now, perhaps by as much as twice...
I'll not be shocked to see NOK trade down to $0.90...
I've previously noted my focus on timing... which will have me looking at the "miracle" that is required for NOK to succeed... that depends on MSFT shipping a product that consumers will want more than competitors offerings... and shipping it on time...
Let me know what your own rosy $ scenario for Q4 ( W8 ships on time, and is liked, while NOK avoids screwing anything else up... and finds a way to fix what they have already broken in consumer trust) ... would look like with failures in one, two, three or all four of those instances ? |
