Nice post, Swordfish.
It's a lot of fun speculating about a takeover, but the chances, right now, are slim and none. At the very least, any potential acquiror is going to wait a few months to see just how well ASND's new products perform in the marketplace. As you correctly note, Mory & crew probably wouldn't sell for less than $50 or $55 a share. Whether they're right or not, they think that ASND can compete and, eventually, return to its successes of the past. With this attitude, management will also resist any hostile takeover attempt for a lesser amount with a poison pill or other defensive manuever.
A potential acquiror will likely balk at paying a 120% premium (and 10x sales) for a company that, although well-positioned, is in the middle of a substantial product transition. I know that if I were a shareholder of the potential acquiror, I would go bananas if my company paid that kind of price for ASND, under the current conditions.
Long on ASND (and hopeful), but not holding my breath for a quick turnaround.
Matt |
