Hi Bob!
Re short picks
I wasn't very scientific. I felt the entire market was overvalued this summer so I looked for the industry with the greatest appreciation over the previous 12 months for shorts. What stood out was the SOX, up from ~150 last summer to ~400 this summer, +166% in 12 months!!!
Next, how to choose from dozens of industry participants? I decided if this summer was exuberance, then someday in the future, the market would feel despair again. Since the last time small cap tech stocks felt despair was this April, I looked at charts searching for semi companies which had appreciated 100+% between April and September.
There were a bunch: ASMLF, ASYT, CMOS, ESIO, ORBKF, . . .
They're now down a lot. Have they bottomed? I don't know, but given that everything was actually OK this April, and given that Asia is turning out to be a major problem, I expect to see April's prices sometime in the future.
OK, so go ahead and make fun of me . . .
Got to go to TG, I'll read the jeers when I get back!
Best Regards, John. |
