InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary:
investmenthouse.com
- SP500, Dow break to new rally highs as 'anticipation' rally throttles up.
- Investors ignoring fading economic data in favor of stimulus.
- Weak Q2 GDP initial read beats expectations, revisions show the recession was not as bad but the recovery under Obama is even worse than thought.
- No reason not to rally further, but is market banking on a QE announcement this week or is it just factoring in that QE is coming for certain?
Market anticipates stimulus, but unlike the 1970's ketchup commercial, it is not waiting.
A second day of strong upside moves across the market saw the NYSE large cap indices break to new rally highs. Financials and energy moved, and indeed most sectors advanced as NYSE breadth posted a solid 5:1 read. The stimulus anticipation move, reinvigorated by the ECB's Draghi on Thursday, surged full bore Friday, unworried by the weak US GDP reading and Germany's late and rather weak 'nein' to bond purchases.
While Europe has in the past told Treasury Secretary Geithner to mind his own business when it came to resolving the debt crisis (see September 2011), it appears that Europe is now willing to go ahead and buy those bonds as Germany's protest thus far is, as noted, tepid. It would appear that, as is usually the case, necessity is the mother of capitulation.
Let me make our position perfectly clear. The distinctions are dramatic. You see, the US Fed bought US bonds. We don't like that. We plan to buy EUROPEAN bonds.
Much different. - - Mario Draghi, ECB chief.
The indices continued the Thursday rally. As noted Wednesday night, SP500 was in position to move higher and the ECB tossed up the softball. Friday the market, now with the promise of Fed action either next week or in September AND the ECB head talking cocksure that he has what it takes and will do what it takes. A two-fer that sprung the fourth upside leg of the rally and helped keep it rolling into the weekend.
SP500 +1.91%; NASDAQ +2.24%; DJ30 1.46%; SP600 2.28%; SOX 2.31%
SP500 and DJ30 broke to new rally highs, surpassing the early July peak and putting SP500 just 36 points and DJ30 263 points away from a post-bear market high marked by the May 2012 peaks. At the current pace, that would take less than two days to hit. NASDAQ and SP600, well, they are still quite a way off the recent highs, but they are dutifully following, and unlike Thursday, the small caps participated in the move and provided a nice rounding out of breadth.
OTHER MARKETS.
The other markets continued the move from Thursday that was incongruous to the news out of Europe in some respects.
Dollar. 1.2317 versus 1.2283 euro. The dollar fell in its second down day. You would think the euro would fall if Europe will put forth stimulus. But with the US also saying it will provide Quantitative Easing, the notion is that the US is already stumbling along, so maybe this will bring Europe back and strengthen the euro. So the dollar was down and the euro was up. They are both still in their trends, however: The dollar trending higher and the euro trending lower.
Bonds. 1.55% versus 1.43% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds struggled. Pretty much a beating about the head and shoulders. That is a tremendous decline. Why? If Europe will get better magically, then the US Treasury will not be needed as much as a safe haven. Therefore there has been some unloading of bonds over the past couple of sessions, particularly on Friday. Note that after breaking above the late-May/early-June high, bonds immediately reversed and sold down. No follow-through to the upside. That is always something to watch for: On a break higher or a break lower, is there follow-through to the upside? Here that is not the case. More than that, there was a gap to the downside and a stiff tumble lower.
Gold. 1,622.70, +2.90. Gold was not surging but it did okay. It was up higher afterhours, and it put in a good move on the week. We got the 1-2 punch, right? We had the Fed saying it will give some kind of stimulus, and then on Thursday the ECB said it would do whatever it takes. Gold is sensing inflation and possibly sensing the fear that some central banks are telegraphing to us given their statements about what action they will take. There is the worry of inflation and a little fear that is pumping up the price. Not huge moves, but a good break higher.
Why aren't there huge moves with gold? This has a look of LIBOR to it. A lot has happened in June and July. A lot happened before that as well, yet gold has been going nowhere. This smacks of manipulation. And I believe the next manipulation story to hit, for lack of a better phrase, will involve gold. The manipulation is to the downside because it should be racing ahead on worries of inflation given what the ECB and the US Fed are saying in public. They are committing themselves in public to these actions.
Oil. 90.13, +0.74. Oil posted another gain. It pulled back from the prior week and then bounced Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Nothing major, but it was bouncing higher once more. After all, if Europe will do whatever it takes to make things right, oil will obviously be worth more because of the booming European economy to come, right? Yeah, right. It is an inflation play. That is why it was bouncing.
TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Internals.
Volume. NASDAQ +8%, 2.06B; NYSE -1%, 824M. NYSE was down from a decent volume gain on Thursday. It was kind of down within still stronger overall reads to end the week.
Breadth. NASDAQ +3.3:1; NYSE +5:1. Breadth was stronger. The NYSE was helped out by those small and mid caps that did not participate on Wednesday.
THE CHARTS
SP500. SP500 broke above the June and July peaks and cleared to a new higher high on the rally off of the June lows. The inverted head and shoulders, the breakout, and then three tests have resulted in three higher highs. That is very solid action. A good technical move as the market continues up towards those peaks. That would put SP500 at 1422.38. That is the post bear market high it hit in April that the SP500 will be shooting for. Our target on this move has been 1415 or so. Not far away at all, but anywhere in this range up to that high is a logical point for the index to hit. I will talk later about just what the market is factoring in and what it believes the situation to be. That may have an impact on how far this move can actually run.
DJ30. DJ30 showed similar action, clearing those June and July peaks. It was just about 260 points away from its triple highs that span March into May of this year. It is in great shape to continue to the upside and challenge those levels, similar to SP500.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ has yet to clear the June high. It has yet to clear the July peak. It was unable to put in a higher high on the last move, and that was a change of character of the entire recovery. It put in question its ability to move. It is a growth index; techs are growth. If growth is not that great, then there is lag. We see NASDAQ lagging, and the next important move for it to make is above 2988. That is the early-July peak. If it gets over there, it can run to up to 3000 and bump the bottom of the gap. But if it moves up over that other level, then it should go up and fill the gap at 3025. There is still room to move for NASDAQ as well.
SP600. SP600 posted a very solid gain, but it is also much lower than the other indices. It is still below the early-July high, still below the June high, but it is bouncing. Something of an ABCD pattern, and it is rallying. Remember that an ABCD pattern puts the target at the prior peak around 455. That is another nine points away. SP600 is moving. It has lagged simply because the economic data has been so poor. There is no question why it would have lagged. If the economic data is not here in the US, small caps just do not perform as well. How they act at the high coming up at 455 will tell us a lot about just what the economy will do. Thus far, the small caps have not broken down at all. In fact they are basing, and they were moving along with the rest of the market. But they started to lag on this last go round because they broke to a lower low. A lower high and a lower low. These areas between the July and June peak will be critical on the continued coming move.
SOX. SOX had a good later part of the week, particularly on Wednesday and Friday. It is very close to important resistance at 390-391. Two tops at that level, a consolidation in May, and another consolidation in January. Very important. If we go way back in time, this has held at other times in the past. It is approaching a serious level. That move and the test along with the test that the small caps make at 455 will tell us quite a bit about what the expectations are for the economy and how those two indices react to that nearer resistance. If there is a reversal, then the large cap indices will probably follow them down as well, capping this rally.
We are coming to loggerheads. There are the indices that have been basing and are moving up. As we can see, SP500 broke to a higher high. We have the economic data that continues lower. We have no real stimulus coming for the economy other than the Fed's liquidity. That has a short term and positive impact on financial instruments (stocks, etc.), but it becomes of shorter duration in terms of the impact the more times they go to that well. The Fed does not want to go to that well, but it feels it needs to do something before the election. It cannot wait much longer without looking political. Although any move now is somewhat political no matter what the Fed does. That is why Bernanke is saying, "Darn, what will I do now?"
We have the markets coming up. If the Fed provides liquidity, they can continue. If the Fed does not, then they may stumble near term, but they know they will get it. The question is: If the economic data falls off the table, even as asset prices try to rise, how long will they be able to rise before they are dragged lower by economic data tumbling into recession levels?
LEADERSHIP
Big Names. The big names had a good day. Some of them did not participate at all on Thursday, but they were in the game on Friday. AAPL moved higher. It was helped by AMZN with the ...super earnings? No. They were not super, but AMZN does not care. It said it will do what they always do, and that always results in them making a ton of money. They said they have done it before and will do it again. The earnings may not be that great, but AMZN is so cocksure about what they are doing, people think that they better buy into them now. That is exactly what they did. PCLN exploded higher, up 9%. It was a mere $55 move on the day. Big names were participating in a big away, and that helped push the indices higher.
Retail. Some of the retailers such as AMZN are doing quite well. EBAY came back after some issues heading into its earnings. It posted those great earnings, and it tested and started to ramp higher once again on rising volume. Not bad. RL was showing signs of activity in the week. It did bounce. It had a flat day on Friday, but if you look at some others that are posting earnings next week, you can see some solid results coming out, or at least the moves in anticipation of solid results.
COH was moving back above the 50 day EMA. It is coming off of its own little selloff and inverted head and shoulders. There is your breakout. COST is performing very well, continuing its upside move and breaking to a new rally high on Friday. Retail continues to do well. The savings rate was up, so perhaps there is a view that at least consumers will have money to spend even though they do not have jobs. This is one of the strange dichotomies in this market. People are saying, "The savings rate is up, so people are saving! Yeehaw!" But let's face it: A lot of people do not have jobs. Those who are making money may be saving more of it, but it is a small percentage. That will not help the consumption side of the economy that much.
Energy. Energy stocks are enjoying a nice renaissance of sorts, moving higher. CVX posted good earnings last week and is moving to a new rally high. XOM reported confusing earnings, but it continued to move to the upside. Go figure. PTEN had a nice break to the upside and then advanced that move on Friday. There is good movement in the energy sector as well.
Materials. Some of the building materials are moving great. We have a play on CX, and it broke to a new rally high on Friday. It looks as if even LPX, after its stint at the 50 day EMA, might be back in the game as it posted a nice 4+% move off of the 50 day EMA.
Industrials. Earlier in the week I was down on the industrials because they moved but did not look that great. But CAT put in a nice move on Friday, and it is trying to base out. No doubt it is trying to put in a rounded bottom. MACD is making higher lows as the stock put in a lower low. It could make a break. It has room to run up to around 95. That is not a huge move, but as I like to say in the office, that makes it damn interesting in terms of a play. TEX just decided to take off to the upside. Some of the industrials are coming back to life. Staying power is a worry. You do not want to let these stocks get too far away from you. You cannot jump into them at this point until we see what will happen with the resistance, what kind of pullback we get, and what kind of entry that gives us as well.
Financials. It did not hurt that the financials were performing on Friday. JPM jumped through the 200 day EMA. BAC wasn't flying. It made it back to the 200 day EMA and, after its selloff, that did not hurt. WFC was up, matching last week's highs and trying to make a new break. TCBI blasted off to a new rally high after a week of testing at the 50 day EMA.
Summary. As noted, a broad range of stocks from a broad range of sectors contributed to the market move on Friday. This was after a very narrow move on Thursday. We are getting must more participation. With both the Fed and the ECB saying they will do whatever it takes, investors were much freer with their money, and they put it to work. Very interesting. We will have to see how this plays out ahead, and just try to get into the mind of the aggregate of investors and what they think will happen over the next couple of weeks.
THE ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video
GDP revisions show the recession was not as bad as thought. SO WHY IS THE RECOVERY SO SLOW? You know why.
You would think that a beat on the GDP expectations would be celebrated. I suppose it was, but it was more akin to when initial reports from a wreck count 25 people injured but it turns out to only be 22. Not much solace.
And thus the 1.5% read versus the 1.4% (or 1.2%) expected, depending upon who you poll, was better but did not win over many hearts and minds.
The internals didn't provide much solace either, and as revisions are going to reflect the growing awareness that the economy is slowing faster.
Consumer spending: 1.5% versus 2.4% Q1. That added 1.05% to GDP versus adding 1.72% in Q1. It was still the biggest addition to the report but it is slowing as well. With median family incomes 6% less now than in 2000 (per the New York Times) spending would be lower anyway. Add onto that the excess debt and frozen consumer credit market and it is not surprising consumer spending is weakening further.
Business investment fell for the third straight quarter. Fixed investment 0.76 versus 1.18. All investment categories fell except for equipment and software (0.51 versus 0.39) and inventories (0.32 versus -0.39). The latter is not a good indication as new orders continue to fall, telling you that inventories are rising for a lack of sales.
Output gap. This is the measure of the difference between Real GDP (inflation-adjusted) and Potential GDP (where we should be based upon the population, etc.). The gap is 5.41% of GDP, the highest in three quarters and is at a level that, surprise, shows up in recessions.
The Revisions.
But we find out that things are, or at least were, better than our jobs, bank accounts, savings, and debts tell us. The government revised GDP figures back to 2009 and in that revision the Obama administration finally got a couple of quarters of GDP higher than a 3-handle. Back in Q4 2009 and Q4 2011 GDP hit a post-recession high of 4.1%. No coincidence those are the quarters of investment to take advantage of tax breaks for expensing equipment purchases. That 4.1% in 2011 was just a respite, an island in a sharp decline. Even the revisions have not helped much in terms of elevating the view of the 'recovery.'
Indeed the revisions show us just how dramatic the decline has been. FIRST, the recession was not as bad as the Obama administration has whined about. Not at all. SECOND, the 2.6% drop from Q4 2011 to present is the fastest decline since 2008 when the economy was in freefall. That is NOT good news for the rest of the summer and fall. Moreover, during the 'recovery' from mid-2009 up to 2012 GDP grew by 5.8% versus the 6.2% previously reported. This was already the weakest recovery since the Great Depression and now it has been shown to be even weaker. Indeed, median GDP in all post-war recoveries is 15.1% higher at this point in the recovery versus what it was when the recession began. The Obama recovery? Just 1.7 lousy percent.
What do you take from this? There is NO REASON this recovery should be this slow. It was not nearly as deep as thought. The problem is the POLICIES used to try and fix the problem as well as the blatant big government, central control agenda pushed via the 'affordable' healthcare act and executive orders. Massive government spending, massive regulation, massive new programs creating higher taxes, uncertainty, and thousands of new 'laws' business and individuals must follow. You have to laugh and simultaneously wince in pain when you hear President Obama just this week tell crowds how 'his way' has 'worked.'
How? Worked to produce the slowest post-GD recovery from what was not nearly as bad a recession as thought? If the republican nominee and his staff had any brains (and that is open to debate) they could take this data, this latest comment, add it to the 'you didn't build it' and 'the private sector is just fine' statements and run all the way to the White House.
My first commercial would juxtapose an entrepreneur who built a successful business, a true 'he built that' story, but who is now struggling under regulation and the recession, forced to lay off workers and on the verge of collapse against the GDP numbers showing the slowest recovery in modern history and saying to the President 'He built that, YOU built this.'
My second commercial would show the recession to prosperity recovery figures from two of the most popular and successful Presidents of our time, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. It asks what policies they used to get there: both cut taxes, reduced government, and reformed and reduced regulation. It would then show Obama saying 'we tried it their way and it didn't work. Our way is working.' At the same time it would detail the increase in government size, the increase in spending, the increase in debt, the increase in regulation, and the increase in taxes the administration wants. The result: 1.7%, the lowest GDP recovery in history. 42 consecutive months of a record 8+% unemployment. 23 million people STILL unemployed. 200,000 small businesses lost from 2008 to 2010. It then asks the question: Whose way works Mr. President?
THE MARKET
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 16.7; -0.83
VXN: 18.58; -1.53
VXO: 16.35; -0.3
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; -0.09
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 40.4% versus 43.6% and 44.7%. Continuing the fade after the run upside from early June. That volatility did indeed suggest bulls were fading, and as the case often is, just as the market turned they are turning bearish. Undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June. You would expect it to rise and it has. Still not at a dangerous level, just working as it should. As noted, hit 34% in early June. It did its job and the market is on the rally. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 26.6% versus 24.5% for three weeks and 24.7% before that. Never got close to the 35% level on the last run higher and likely won't get there anytime soon as the market rallies further upside on this leg. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +64.84 points (+2.24%) to close at 2958.09
Volume: 2.065B (+7.95%)
Up Volume: 1.59B (+210M)
Down Volume: 479.36M (-129.09M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.01 to 1
New Highs: 92 (+49)
New Lows: 57 (-31)
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +25.95 points (+1.91%) to close at 1385.97
NYSE Volume: 824M (-0.72%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.97 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.74 to 1
New Highs: 247 (+70)
New Lows: 29 (-31)
DJ30
Stats: +187.73 points (+1.46%) to close at 13075.66
Volume: 161M shares Friday versus 133M shares Thursday.
MONDAY
Next week is big in terms of economic data. Earnings will continue, so we will not have a slowdown there. Despite my misgiving about this week, although it did sell off early on earnings, the second week of earnings proved to be a barn burner. But it was not the earnings that did it. In spite of some disappointing earnings we saw, the markets rallied. Again, it was the one-two punch of the US Fed saying they will give us Quantitative Easing at some point and the ECB saying they will do whatever it takes. That is what really moved the market.
We will have a lot of important data starting on Tuesday. There is a little Personal Income, and that is always important. There is Case/Schiller; it is lagging but nonetheless important. Chicago PMI will be very important. Then we will come into Wednesday with the ISM. Will we turn in another negative month or will we be positive? This all leads up to the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. What will that be? How will that affect the presidential race? Blah, blah, blah. You know how it goes. Whether it is truth or fiction, we will see. I know things are getting worse. I am wondering how the administration will fix the problem. Before it was shrinking down the number of workers in the work pool so it makes it look like more people are working. Now the tack is to change the definition of work and what it takes to get welfare so people can claim to be working. That will boost the actual employment rate and lower the unemployment rate without anyone getting a job. How cool is that?
On Wednesday, August 1, we have a little thing called an FOMC rate decision. That is a date specified by the Fed as one in which it could act to initiate more Quantitative Easing. The slightly better than expected report on GDP, revised to 1.4 expected, put Bernanke in an even further quandary than he was already in.
That takes us to the Fed and what this market is really anticipating. What happens if the Fed does not initiate more Quantitative Easing on Wednesday? Will the market sell off because this rally has just been anticipation of the Fed doing that? It could. It has been a good run. The indices could move back up near the post bear market highs and stall and roll over. Maybe SP500 gets to 1400-1415 and runs outs of gas. Perhaps. Maybe it is a big deeper than that, however.
Maybe the market is already factoring in that Quantitative Easing will happen. The Fed says it will happen, so why not factor it in? Why not just build those asset prices higher just as if the Fed had already moved on Quantitative Easing? That is an intriguing thought. Looking at the power of today's rally and how it expanded to other areas versus the rather narrow Thursday move, I got to thinking about that. We were all discussing how strong the move was as we watched our positions run higher. We were pleased by this, and at the same time wondering. Maybe the market is already factoring in that Quantitative Easing is coming and they will go ahead and push those stock prices higher pre-announcement. That is an interesting concept. It also raises the question of whether they will sell on the news if there is Quantitative Easing announced on Wednesday. I do not think it will be announced on Wednesday, but that is an interesting aspect: run into the news and then sell off even though the market gets what wants to.
I posit that there will be more upside than just this move. I would suggest that, while there may be a temporary pullback if no Quantitative Easing is announced, the move will continue. I know this is a change from what I was looking at earlier, but the Fed has now come out and clearly said that it will perform some Quantitative Easing. That has always been good for financial assets because liquidity does not really go into the economy; it goes into financial instruments and they appreciate in value.
Bernanke said he wants to make people feel wealthier, but they are not feeling wealthier with the economy so bad. The one way to do it is to continue jacking up asset prices. That makes it pretty easy if that is the case, and we want to be playing that move. And we are. We were moving in and will continue to do. If we get some kind of pullback after the announcement (or lack of announcement), then we watch for the opportunity to buy into new positions.
What will we do in the interim? If we continue to get that run up to Wednesday, and if we do get a move up to 1415 or maybe even higher (although that puts it right at the prior peak), then we need to take some gain off of the table. Then if there is a disappointment and it comes back, we can buy into new positions as well. Then we are set very nicely for a continued move that will no doubt come because the market will continue to anticipate Quantitative Easing in the future. Therefore it can continue to rally on that promises of Quantitative Easing. Thus far this move is not strong enough or had not been big enough to account for all of the Quantitative Easing appreciation and assets.
That is how we have to take it at this point. A strong move. It is harder to move into new positions, of course, but it is not bad in terms of getting a pullback or picking up some positions on stocks that have not really surged yet. Then you ride them up into the next high, take some gain, and then let them come back, pick them up, and buy for the rally into the actual Quantitative Easing announcement in September.
Things could still roll over at 1400-1415. That is still a decent move. We will let our positions run. If we get entries and we think it is worthwhile to take some -- although we are already somewhat extended in two days -- we can pick them up. We will take what the market gives. Then we get a little pullback after some disappointment. It may be a little bit bigger pullback because all of these have been stout. Then we watch for the turn and pick them up again for the next run.
I will see you Monday for a jam-packed week. Have a great evening!
Support and resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2958.09
Resistance:
2962 is the April 2012 low
2988 is the July 2012 high
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
3024 is the gap point from early May
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3076 is the late April 2012 high
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
Support:
2950 is the mid-April closing low
2942 is the mid-June 2012 high
2910 is the March 2012 low
The 50 day EMA at 2903
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2866 is the July 2012 closing low
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2833
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2810 is the low in the shoulders
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
S&P 500: Closed at 1385.97
Resistance:
1406 is the early May 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
Support:
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1375 is the early July 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1363.46 is June 2012 high
1359 is the April 2012 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1348
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1325 is the July 2012 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1318
1309 is the right shoulder low from June 2012
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
Dow: Closed at 13,075.66
Resistance:
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
Support:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,736
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 12,547
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
Economic Calendar
July 27 - Friday
- GDP-Adv. First Read, Q2 (8:30): 1.5% actual versus 1.4% expected, 2.0% prior (revised from 1.9%)
- Chain Deflator-Adv., Q2 (8:30): 1.6% actual versus 1.6% expected, 2.0% prior
- Michigan Sentiment -, July (9:55): 72.3 actual versus 72.0 expected, 72.0 prior
July 31 - Tuesday
- Personal Income, June (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
- Personal Spending, June (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
- PCE Prices - Core, June (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- Employment Cost Index, Q2 (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior
- Case-Shiller 20-city, May (9:00): -1.8% expected, -1.9% prior
- Chicago PMI, July (9:45): 52.5 expected, 52.9 prior
- Consumer Confidence, July (10:00): 61.0 expected, 62.0 prior
August 1 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 07/28 (7:00): 0.9% prior
- ADP Employment Chang, July (8:15): 125K expected, 179K prior
- ISM Index, July (10:00): 49.9 expected, 49.7 prior
- Construction Spending, June (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.9% prior
- Crude Inventories, 07/28 (10:30): 2.717M prior
- Auto Sales, July (14:00): 4.9M prior
- Truck Sales, July (14:00): 6.1M prior
- FOMC Rate Decision, July (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
August 2 - Thursday
- Challenger Job Cuts, July (7:30): -9.5% prior
- Initial Claims, 07/28 (8:30): 365K expected, 353K prior
- Continuing Claims, 07/21 (8:30): 3298K expected, 3287K prior
- Factory Orders, June (10:00): 0.6% expected, 0.7% prior
August 3 - Friday
- Nonfarm Payrolls, July (8:30): 100K expected, 80K prior
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls, July (8:30): 105K expected, 84K prior
- Unemployment Rate, July (8:30): 8.2% expected, 8.2% prior
- Hourly Earnings, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
- Average Workweek, July (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
- ISM Services, July (10:00): 52.2 expected, 52.1 prior |
