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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (18752)11/27/1997 7:46:00 PM
From: BJP1946  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Just to try to slice off a tiny bit of the gloom. I get Goldman morning research and revenues
were about $30 million more than they projected. There was not a hint
that the revenues were suspect in any way, nor have I heard anyone
suggest otherwise. So there was a pleasant, though modest, upside. But isn't this what Schmidt
has been saying.

When he warns that next quarter's revenues will be flat to slightly down, he's doing exactly
what he's supposed to, keeping expectations down and hopefully surprising on the
upside. You can't complain about negative surprises and about tempered expectations at the
same time.

I've watched Schmidt a couple of times and he seems honest. Totally without charisma. If he's not a fraud,
then the Company has a chance.

I mean I love it when a guy is NOT hyping a company.

I believe you are totally wrong when you value the company at $9 because they are anticipated to only earn $.30. Everything is DIRECTION when you
are trading stocks, not absolute numbers. If they start generating cash and get a hot new product or two and start buying back shares, the stock's a double from here within 12 months. No doubt about it.

And now there's almost no downside in the near term. He's told the street that revenues will be flat and the stock still held. If it holds for another day or two -- and it may not because it'll take a day or two for the analysts to make up
their minds -- it won't see eight again. If one influential analyst comes on board, you've got a $10 bottom.

I suppose that's much more than enough, but for the life of me this stock seems like a reasonable spec over the next 12 months.
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