Roger,
After digesting the full content of COMDEX, with respect to CTXS I have come to the following conclusion : YOURS :o)
I cannot see that CTXS will continue to be able to support it's current value, based on a few important factors:
1. Windows NT Hydra will not be quickly incorporated into the enterprise, because all applications that use hards calls to devices (bypassing the Windows API), as well as those that use device drivers (almost all applications use device drivers) will need to be rewritten.
2. Windows NT Hydra will not support clustering in the first release, and is not expected to until Windows NT 5.0 is released.
3. Picasso (from CTXS) supports multiple servers, but there is currently no support for fail-over (when another server picks up the load of a failed server), an absolutely necessary component of any mission-critical system.
4. Windows NT Hydra's main role is to provide enterprise's with an alternative to Network Computers (NC's) running JAVA applications. In essence, this is a hedge bet by Microsoft to ensure that if NC's catch on, they are in the game. However, Microsoft is already mounting a strong attack on JAVA that ensures this scenario will not occur in the near future.
5. Windows NT 5.0 has been delayed (again), and will most likely not be released until 1999. This does not help MSFT, but it surely hurts CTXS more, who cannot generate real revenue until NT 5.0 is shipping. Winframe will not be an on-going cash cow, that fact has been well establised here.
6. Windows NT Hydra may very well incorporate a lot of the features in Picasso when it eventually ships, since MSFT is using the delays to strengthen the product, as well as add features it has received strong demand for from early beta testers
7. IBM, Novell, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, and Netscape have been silently working in a cooperative effort to topple Microsoft, and eliminate operating systems (as we know them) from the computer landscape. If you have heard of this system (or better yet seen the model), you know why MSFT is so worried about JAVA, and the proposed use of the internet to handle the flow of most electronic information.
I think you are in correct position, only a little early to the party. It's simply a matter of time before the media and hype bubbles pop, and reveal the underlying skinny remains called CTXS. I would never consider a long position in CTXS, knowing what I learned this week at COMDEX.
Regards, JB |
